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Nguyen (Oxford) credits GPT-6 Astra with key lemmas; a DeepMind internal model independently proved the P6 case with a Lean formalisation.","verdict":"Advance, claimed: multiple labs converging on the same 1977 problem.","dependencies":["ai_math","lean"],"region":"europe","sources":["https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24887","https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-17-erdos-hajnal-all-paths-nguyen-astra-deepmind/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":true,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#erdos_hajnal_paths"},{"id":"euler_unforced_blowup","name":"OpenAI: finite-time blow-up for the unforced 3D incompressible Euler equations","year":2026,"date":"2026-09","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Companion result: smooth, compactly supported divergence-free initial velocity on R^3 whose unforced Euler solution develops a singularity in finite time; Lean 4 formalization in the same repo.","verdict":"Claimed: a long-open inviscid question, no independent expert verdict found yet.","dependencies":["navier_stokes_claim","lean"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://github.com/openai/NavierStokesAndEuler","https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":true,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#euler_unforced_blowup"},{"id":"w_human_genome_720988","name":"Complete human genome (telomere-to-telomere)","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Complete set of nucleic acid sequence for humans. Publication of research reporting the sequencing of the remaining gap of the Human genome.","verdict":"Advance: The Telomere-to-Telomere consortium filled the last 8% of the human sequence in 2022, the first truly complete human genome.","dependencies":["human_genome"],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Human_genome","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_medicine_and_medical_technology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_scientific_discoveries","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q720988"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_human_genome_720988"},{"id":"zero_dte","name":"0DTE options boom","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Money & Markets","domainId":"money","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":4,"summary":"Daily SPX expirations from 2022; about half of SPX volume by 2023.","verdict":"Drift: casino-ization of markets.","dependencies":["cboe"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Option_(finance)","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q187860"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/money-and-markets#zero_dte"},{"id":"ai_slop","name":"AI-generated content farms (\"slop\")","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":4,"summary":"Mass-produced low-quality AI content.","verdict":"Drift: generative AI as dissipation engine.","dependencies":["diffusion","chatgpt"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/AI_slop","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q126720803"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#ai_slop"},{"id":"majorana1","name":"Microsoft Majorana 1 topological chip","year":2025,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Announced Feb 2025; topological qubit claims are disputed.","verdict":"Unproven: claims contested.","dependencies":["qec"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Majorana_1","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q132560637"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#majorana1"},{"id":"photonic_ai","name":"Photonic AI accelerators","year":2025,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Lightmatter's photonic processor (Nature, April 2025).","verdict":"Emerging advance.","dependencies":["silicon_photonics","deep_learning"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightmatter","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q107120084"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#photonic_ai"},{"id":"gaa","name":"Gate-all-around transistors","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Samsung 3nm GAA, 2022; TSMC N2 2025.","verdict":"Advance.","dependencies":["finfet"],"region":"korea","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Multigate_device","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6119749"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#gaa"},{"id":"china_robotaxi_permits","name":"China grants paid robotaxi demo permits to Xpeng and VW JV","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-26","approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"compete","impact":4,"summary":"Guangzhou licence lets Xpeng carry paying passengers in driverless taxis, the step before commercial approval.","verdict":"Compete: US–China race for robotaxi deployment.","dependencies":["robotaxi"],"region":"china","sources":["https://www.scmp.com/business/china-evs/article/3372153/china-grants-permits-vw-joint-venture-xpeng-autonomous-driving-race-intensifies"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#china_robotaxi_permits"},{"id":"subsea_geothermal","name":"First subsea geothermal well and net-positive seafloor power plant (Endurance Adélie)","year":2026,"date":"2026-09-27","approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Seattle startup drilled the first offshore geothermal well at Axial Seamount and ran a 3-ton seafloor plant net-positive for ~8.7 s (peak 16.5 kW).","verdict":"Advance: a new energy frontier proven end to end, but only for seconds.","dependencies":["geothermal_enh"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.enduranceenergy.com/press/adelie","https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/10/startup-taps-underwater-volcano-as-energy-source-in-proof-point-test/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"invention","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#subsea_geothermal"},{"id":"general_fusion_1kev","name":"General Fusion LM26 reaches 1 keV via magnetized target fusion","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-08","approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"LM26 exceeded 1 keV electron temperature with low-speed metal-wall compression, the first of three LM26 milestones (with UKAEA).","verdict":"Advance: a cheaper fusion path clears its first gate; 10 keV and Lawson still ahead.","dependencies":["fusion_ignition"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://generalfusion.com/post/general-fusion-achieves-world-first-1-kev-electron-temperature-milestone-on-its-path-to-commercial-fusion-power/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"invention","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#general_fusion_1kev"},{"id":"us_de_counterdrone_pilot","name":"Pentagon picks 4 directed-energy weapons for homeland counter-drone pilot","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-05","approx":false,"domain":"Military","domainId":"military","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"compete","impact":4,"summary":"JIATF-401 selected AeroVironment, Epirus Leonidas HPM, Kord Firefly and Boeing CLWS for a pilot at US bases.","verdict":"Compete: directed energy moves from demo to base defense.","dependencies":["drones_mil","laser"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.militarytimes.com/industry/techwatch/2026/10/06/pentagon-names-4-directed-energy-weapons-for-counter-drone-program-at-us-bases/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/military#us_de_counterdrone_pilot"},{"id":"schaeffler_humanoid_factory","name":"Schaeffler \"humanoids making humanoids\" factory, Taicang","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-20","approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Six humanoids at five stations assemble actuators for next-gen humanoids; start of component mass production.","verdict":"Advance: robots begin building robots, the recursive step of the robot economy.","dependencies":["humanoids"],"region":"china","sources":["https://www.schaeffler.com/en/media/press-releases/press-releases-detail.jsp?id=88222851"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#schaeffler_humanoid_factory"},{"id":"amie","name":"AMIE diagnostic dialogue AI","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A Google research system that beat primary-care physicians on simulated consultations.","verdict":"Advance (research).","dependencies":["med_palm"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Google_DeepMind","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15733006"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#amie"},{"id":"optimus","name":"Tesla Optimus","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Unveiled Sept 2022; 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patient Noland Arbaugh.","verdict":"Emerging.","dependencies":["braingate"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Neuralink","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29043471"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#neuralink_human"},{"id":"altos","name":"Altos Labs","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Launched Jan 2022 with $3B for cellular rejuvenation.","verdict":"Advance (institution).","dependencies":["ipsc","partial_reprog"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Altos_Labs","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q110701976"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#altos"},{"id":"deepfake_fraud","name":"Deepfake fraud at scale","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":4,"summary":"Arup lost about $25M to a deepfaked video call in Hong Kong (Feb 2024).","verdict":"Dissipate.","dependencies":["deepfakes"],"region":"china","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Deepfake","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49473179"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#deepfake_fraud"},{"id":"constellation_doe_uprates","name":"DOE conditional $5B loan for Constellation nuclear uprates (~1.1 GW)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-27","approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Conditional commitment to uprate and modernize eight plants in IL, MD and PA, adding nearly 1.1 GW; not yet a final loan.","verdict":"Advance: the cheapest new nuclear is squeezing more out of existing reactors.","dependencies":["nuclear_power"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-announces-5-billion-loan-boost-nuclear-power-and-help-lower-costs","https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2026/10/constellation-secures-conditional-doe-loan-commitment-of-up-to-5-billion-to-expand-nuclear-output.html"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#constellation_doe_uprates"},{"id":"gpt61_terra","name":"OpenAI GPT-6.1 Terra (computer-use model at half price)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-26","approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Faster, cheaper cross-app computer-use model; 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covers AI incl. \"superintelligence\"; comment period before final rule.","verdict":"Compete: capital controls join chip controls in the US-China tech race.","dependencies":["chip_controls","export_controls"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.techrepublic.com/article/news-us-treasury-china-investment-rules-ai-biotech-chips/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#us_outbound_investment_rule"},{"id":"ai_scientist_sakana","name":"The AI Scientist (Sakana AI)","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"An agent pipeline that generates ideas, runs experiments and writes ML papers end to end. Early and uneven, but a first open demonstration of automated research.","verdict":"Advance: automated research, end to end.","dependencies":["gpt3","reasoning_models"],"region":"asia","sources":["https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.06292","https://sakana.ai/ai-scientist/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#ai_scientist_sakana"},{"id":"tahoe_100m","name":"Tahoe-100M perturbation atlas","year":2025,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Tahoe Therapeutics released about 100 million single cells profiled under drug perturbations, the largest open perturbation dataset at release.","verdict":"Advance: data on how cells respond, not just what they are.","dependencies":["scrnaseq"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://huggingface.co/datasets/tahoebio/Tahoe-100M"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#tahoe_100m"},{"id":"us_232_robotics","name":"US Section 232 proclamation: robotics and industrial machinery imports threaten national security","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-28","approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"compete","impact":4,"summary":"Trump concurred with Commerce's finding that imports of robots (incl. humanoids, quadrupeds, AGVs), industrial machinery and parts impair national security; Commerce and USTR get 180 days to negotiate, with tariffs, quotas or incentives held in reserve.","verdict":"Compete: robotics is now formally a defense-industrial-base chokepoint; reshoring pressure, with near-term cost risk for US manufacturers.","dependencies":["industrial_robot","humanoids","tariffs_2018"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/10/adjusting-imports-of-robotics-industrial-machinery-and-their-parts-and-components-into-the-united-states/","https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/10/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-adjusts-imports-of-robotics-industrial-machinery-and-their-parts-and-components-into-the-united-states/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#us_232_robotics"},{"id":"cxmt_hbm3e","name":"China's CXMT to start HBM3E production at 20-30% yields","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-28","approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"compete","impact":4,"summary":"CXMT has sampled HBM3E to domestic AI chip designers and plans limited production within ~2 months despite 20-30% yields (SK Hynix ~70%); tested performance is closer to SK Hynix HBM3.","verdict":"Compete: export controls force China to brute-force AI memory at high cost; it remains about a generation behind Korea.","dependencies":["hbm","dram","export_controls"],"region":"china","sources":["https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-28/exclusive-chinas-cxmt-to-start-advanced-ai-memory-production-despite-poor-yields-sources-say","https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/28/news-cxmt-reportedly-ships-hbm3e-samples-eyes-production-within-2-months-despite-20-30-yields/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#cxmt_hbm3e"},{"id":"alphadev","name":"AlphaDev faster sorting","year":2023,"date":"2023-06","approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Faster sorting routines merged into LLVM libc++ (Nature, June 2023).","verdict":"Advance.","dependencies":["alphazero"],"region":"europe","sources":["https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06004-9"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#alphadev"},{"id":"gencast","name":"GenCast probabilistic weather","year":2024,"date":"2024-12","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Beats ENS ensemble forecasts (Nature, Dec 2024).","verdict":"Advance.","dependencies":["graphcast"],"region":"europe","sources":["https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#gencast"},{"id":"erdos_728","name":"Erdős problem #728 resolved by AI + Lean (Aristotle)","year":2026,"date":"2026-01","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"GPT-5.2 Pro proof repaired and Lean-verified by Harmonic's Aristotle.","verdict":"Advance.","dependencies":["imo_gold_2025","lean"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://mathstodon.xyz/@tao/115855840223258103"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#erdos_728"},{"id":"tsirelson_counterexample","name":"Explicit counterexample to Tsirelson's problem (AI + Lean)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Binary linear system game with ~1.4M equations, found with GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 (Gao, Yu & Zhi).","verdict":"Advance.","dependencies":["ai_math","lean"],"region":"china","sources":["https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10248"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":true,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#tsirelson_counterexample"},{"id":"golomb_welch_claimed","name":"Golomb–Welch conjecture (perfect Lee codes) claimed, ChatGPT-assisted","year":2026,"date":"2026-10","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Chen, Huang and Luo claim Lee balls of radius >= 2 never tile Z^n for n >= 3, settling the ~1970 conjecture; ChatGPT helped explore strategies and check calculations.","verdict":"Claimed: unrefereed, no expert reaction yet.","dependencies":["ai_math"],"region":"china","sources":["https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-25-golomb-welch-conjecture-perfect-lee-codes-chatgpt/","https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.34291"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":true,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#golomb_welch_claimed"},{"id":"w_qwen_130234299","name":"Qwen","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Artificial intelligence chatbot developed by Alibaba Cloud. Jun 2024 Alibaba Cloud 72B 3T tokens Various","verdict":"Advance: Alibaba's Qwen models (2023–24) are widely used open-weight models from China.","dependencies":[],"region":"china","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Qwen","https://grokipedia.com/page/List_of_large_language_models","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q130234299"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"wikidata-match","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_qwen_130234299"},{"id":"w_biosensor_669391","name":"Biosensor","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Probe which tests for biological molecules. Scientists report the development of sensors to gather and identify DNA of animals from air (airborne eDNA).","verdict":"Advance: Biosensors such as the glucose meter turn molecular binding into electrical signals, enabling continuous health monitoring and field diagnostics.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Biosensor","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q669391"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_biosensor_669391"},{"id":"w_artificial_neuron_177058","name":"Artificial neuron","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Mathematical function conceived as a crude model.","verdict":"Advance: Hardware neurons that interface with biology; neuromorphic research.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Artificial_neuron","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177058"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_artificial_neuron_177058"},{"id":"w_paywall_910845","name":"Paywall","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":4,"summary":"System that prevents Internet users from accessing webpage content without a paid subscription or fee. In a paywalled article, American scientists propose policy -based measures to reduce large risks from life sciences research – such as pandemics through accident or misapplication.","verdict":"Drift: Paywalls ration access to news and research; revenue model with access costs.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Paywall","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q910845"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_paywall_910845"},{"id":"w_transplantation_105196","name":"Transplantation","year":1954,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Moving of an organ or tissue from one body or body region to another. Success of record-long (3 days rather than usually <12 hours) of human transplant organ preservation with machine perfusion of a liver is reported.","verdict":"Advance: Joseph Murray's 1954 kidney transplant between identical twins succeeded, starting the transplant era that now saves over 150,000 lives a year.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transplantation_%28medicine%29","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q105196"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_transplantation_105196"},{"id":"w_cartilage_502730","name":"Cartilage","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Resilient and smooth elastic tissue, rubber-like padding that covers and protects the ends of long bones at the joints. Lab-made cartilage gel based on a synthetic hydrogel composite is found to have greater strength and wear resistance than natural cartilage, which could enable the durable resurfacing of damaged articulating joints.","verdict":"Advance: In 2022 researchers developed lab-grown and bioprinted cartilage substitutes aimed at worn-out knees, which do not heal on their own.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Cartilage","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q502730"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_cartilage_502730"},{"id":"w_preprint_580922","name":"Preprint","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Version of a scholarly or scientific paper that precedes publication in a peer-reviewed scholarly or scientific journal. A preprint demonstrated how backdoors can be placed undetectably into classifying (e.g. posts as \"spam\" or well-visible \"not spam\") machine learning models which are often developed and/or trained by third parties.","verdict":"Advance: Preprints let results circulate before peer review; open, faster science.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Preprint","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580922"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_preprint_580922"},{"id":"w_spider_silk_2740926","name":"Spider silk","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Filament material produced by spiders. Researchers report a production method for spider silk fibers from gene-edited transgenic silkworms for a sustainable alternative material six times stronger than Kevlar.","verdict":"Advance: Spider silk spun from engineered silkworms (2023) promises tough, biodegradable fibres for sutures and textiles.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Spider_silk","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2740926"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#w_spider_silk_2740926"},{"id":"w_covid_19_drug_development_88459495","name":"COVID-19 drug development","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Preventative and therapeutic medications for COVID-19 infection. The world's first COVID-19 drug designed by generative AI is approved for human use, with clinical trials expected to begin in China. The new drug, ISM3312, is developed by Insilico Medicine.","verdict":"Advance: A COVID antiviral designed by generative AI (Insilico's ISM3312, claimed 2023) shows machine-designed drugs entering the clinic.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/COVID-19_drug_development","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q88459495"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_covid_19_drug_development_88459495"},{"id":"w_applications_of_artificial_intelligence_4781507","name":"Applications of artificial intelligence","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Applications of machine intelligence. A science writer provides an overview of \"the nascent industry of AI-designed drugs \".","verdict":"Advance: AI starts designing proteins, drugs and materials.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Applications_of_artificial_intelligence","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4781507"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_applications_of_artificial_intelligence_4781507"},{"id":"w_version_control_189439","name":"Version control","year":1972,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Activity of managing the versions of one or more files.","verdict":"Advance: Marc Rochkind's SCCS (1972) tracked file revisions, the ancestor of Git.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Version_control","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189439"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_version_control_189439"},{"id":"w_earth_observation_satellite_854845","name":"Earth observation satellite","year":1972,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Artificial satellite specifically designed to observe Earth from orbit. The first global, interactive AI- and satellite monitoring -based, map [ image needed ] and analysis of plastic waste sites to help prevention of plastic pollution, especially ocean pollution was published.","verdict":"Advance: Landsat 1 (1972) began continuous civilian imaging of Earth, now used for crops, forests, disasters and climate.","dependencies":["spy_sat"],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Earth_observation_satellite","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q854845","https://grokipedia.com/page/Landsat_program"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#w_earth_observation_satellite_854845"},{"id":"w_internet_television_841645","name":"Internet television","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Distribution of television content via the public Internet. News outlets reported that in July, for the first time, more people watched streaming TV than cable within the U.S. [ globalize ].","verdict":"Advance: Streaming overtook US cable and broadcast television viewing in July 2022.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Streaming_television","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q841645"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_internet_television_841645"},{"id":"w_misinformation_13579947","name":"Misinformation","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":4,"summary":"Incorrect information with or without an intention to deceive. A research report by NewsGuard indicated there is a high level of online misinformation delivered [ image needed ] – to a mainly young user base – with TikTok, whose usage is increasing.","verdict":"Drift: False information spread at scale; attention captured at truth's expense.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13579947"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_misinformation_13579947"},{"id":"w_artificial_intelligence_visual_art_65066631","name":"Artificial intelligence visual art","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Architecture & the Arts","domainId":"arts","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Genre of art. Text-to-3D software became sophisticated, shortly after generative AI art. OpenAI released Point-E, a machine learning system that can generate 3D models from text prompts, similar to previously released GET3D and Magic3D by Nvidia.","verdict":"Advance: Generative AI art; creativity tools for everyone, amid copyright fights.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/AI_art","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65066631"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/architecture-and-the-arts#w_artificial_intelligence_visual_art_65066631"},{"id":"w_dogfight_830494","name":"Dogfight","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Military","domainId":"military","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"compete","impact":4,"summary":"Combat between aircraft, conducted at close range. A first successful autonomous long-duration operation, including simulated combat, of a modified F-16 fighter jet, X-62A, by two AI software was reported.","verdict":"Compete: An AI pilot flew a real fighter jet in a dogfight; autonomous air combat arrives.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Dogfight","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q830494"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/military#w_dogfight_830494"},{"id":"w_speech_synthesis_16346","name":"Speech synthesis","year":1961,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Artificial production of human speech. A text-to-speech synthesizer, VALL-E, that can be trained to mimic anybody's voice with just three seconds of voice data and may produce the most natural-sounding results to date, was reported in a preprint.","verdict":"Advance: Bell Labs' IBM 704 sang \"Daisy Bell\" in 1961, an early synthesized voice that inspired HAL 9000.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Speech_synthesis","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16346"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_speech_synthesis_16346"},{"id":"w_peremptory_norm_855317","name":"Peremptory norm","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Compelling law (international) that cannot be derogated.","verdict":"Advance: Jus cogens: international-law rules no treaty may override, such as the bans on genocide and slavery.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Peremptory_norm","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q855317"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#w_peremptory_norm_855317"},{"id":"w_open_hardware_159172","name":"Open hardware","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Hardware whose design documents are openly accessible to and modifiable by others. Notable innovations: a low-cost open source air pollution sensor (Flatburn), a laser-using drone-based methane plume localization method, and a portable EEG helmet with significant accuracy of decoding thought words to text (DeWave).","verdict":"Advance: Open hardware, from Arduino (2005) to RISC-V cores, lets anyone study and build devices.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Open-source_hardware","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159172"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_open_hardware_159172"},{"id":"w_enshittification_122584861","name":"Enshittification","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":4,"summary":"Systematic decline in quality of online platforms over time driven by greed. The concept of enshittification about the quality of content on social media platforms introduced in 2022 gained traction.","verdict":"Drift: Platforms decay as they extract value from users; a textbook case of drift.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittification","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q122584861"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"wikidata-match","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_enshittification_122584861"},{"id":"w_tor_202044","name":"Tor","year":2002,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Daemon and utilities for an anonymizing network.","verdict":"Advance: Tor (2002), developed from Naval Research Lab onion routing, protects journalists and dissidents online.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Tor_(network)","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q202044"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"fixed-from-wikidata","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_tor_202044"},{"id":"w_artificial_intelligence_act_108456694","name":"Artificial Intelligence Act","year":2026,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"European Union regulation on artificial intelligence.","verdict":"Advance: The first comprehensive AI law; it may protect or burden innovation.","dependencies":[],"region":"europe","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Artificial_Intelligence_Act","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q108456694"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"wikidata-match","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#w_artificial_intelligence_act_108456694"},{"id":"w_gpt_4_116709136","name":"GPT-4","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Family of artificial intelligence models developed by OpenAI. Model introduction GPT-4 OpenAI introduces GPT-4, describing it as a multimodal model capable of accepting text and image inputs and generating text outputs.","verdict":"Advance: OpenAI's GPT-4 (2023) passed professional exams and set a new bar for large language models.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/GPT-4","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_machine_learning","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q116709136"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"wikidata-match","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_gpt_4_116709136"},{"id":"w_maglev_160047","name":"Maglev","year":1984,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"System of train transportation that uses two sets of magnets. 2023 – The first test-runs of a superconducting maglev test line, called a hyperloop, are carried out in Datong, China (50 km/h of ~1,000 km/h).","verdict":"Advance: Birmingham's 1984 maglev was the first commercial maglev; Shanghai's 2004 line runs at 431 km/h.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Maglev","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_transportation_technology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160047"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#w_maglev_160047"},{"id":"analog_ai","name":"Analog AI chips","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"IBM analog in-memory AI chip, Nature 2023.","verdict":"Emerging advance.","dependencies":["memristor"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/In-memory_processing","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6008583"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#analog_ai"},{"id":"ultrasound_brain_implant","name":"Implantable ultrasound drug-delivery device for glioblastoma","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-26","approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"MIT device releases drugs and uses ultrasound to spread them past the blood-brain barrier (mouse study).","verdict":"Advance, early.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://news.mit.edu/2026/implantable-device-uses-ultrasound-improve-drug-delivery-brain-1026"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"invention","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#ultrasound_brain_implant"},{"id":"squid_bare_loops","name":"SQUID \"bare loop\" synthetic-area-spread sensor","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-27","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Adelaide team fixes zero-field detection in SQUID arrays without varied loop sizes (Phys. Rev. Applied).","verdict":"Advance: cheaper quantum-limited sensors.","dependencies":[],"region":"oceania","sources":["https://adelaide.edu.au/about/news/2026/tiny-quantum-breakthrough-with-big-implications-for-medicine-and/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"invention","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#squid_bare_loops"},{"id":"ca_fusion_sb925","name":"California SB 925 statewide fusion commercialization plan","year":2026,"date":"2026-09-30","approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"First US state law directing a fusion siting, permitting and commercialization strategy.","verdict":"Advance: institutions clearing a path for an abundance technology.","dependencies":["fusion_ignition"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.catf.us/2026/10/california-takes-important-step-to-commercialize-fusion-energy/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#ca_fusion_sb925"},{"id":"nhtsa_av_cyan","name":"NHTSA proposes AV-specific FMVSS 108 rules (cyan ADS lamps)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-23","approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Proposed rule rewrites lighting standards for driverless designs and standardizes optional cyan ADS indicator lamps.","verdict":"Mixed: regulation adapting to implementation.","dependencies":["robotaxi"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.theverge.com/transportation/1017435/nhtsa-autonomous-vehicle-cyan-lighting-fmvss"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#nhtsa_av_cyan"},{"id":"ercot_smr_application","name":"First ERCOT interconnection application for SMRs (Blue Energy, up to 1.5 GW)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10","approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Up to five 300 MW GE Vernova Hitachi reactors proposed to power a Crusoe data center; first unit not before 2033.","verdict":"Advance: AI load is pulling nuclear onto the grid queue.","dependencies":["smr","ai_datacenters"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.gridinnovationhub.com/p/grid-innovation-daily-brief-thursday-october-8-2026"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#ercot_smr_application"},{"id":"artemis_lander_conops","name":"NASA revises Starship/Blue Moon lander plans for 2028 landings","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-23","approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"compete","impact":3,"summary":"Starship HLS to dock with Orion in LEO and push it to low lunar orbit; NASA to pick first crewed lander by readiness.","verdict":"Compete: two US landers racing each other (and China) to the Moon.","dependencies":["starship"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/nasa-partners-accelerate-lander-development-for-2028-moon-missions/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#artemis_lander_conops"},{"id":"lecanemab","name":"Anti-amyloid Alzheimer's antibodies (lecanemab)","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"A modest slowing of decline.","verdict":"Mixed.","dependencies":["hybridoma"],"region":"japan","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Lecanemab","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q56274769"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#lecanemab"},{"id":"un_laws_resolution","name":"UN General Assembly resolution 78/241 on lethal autonomous weapons","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Military","domainId":"military","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"First UNGA resolution on lethal autonomous weapon systems (Dec 2023): asks the Secretary-General for a report on their humanitarian, legal, security and ethical challenges. No ban.","verdict":"Advance, early: the issue reaches the General Assembly; binding rules remain out of reach.","dependencies":["dod_3000_09"],"region":"global","sources":["https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/78/241"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/military#un_laws_resolution"},{"id":"disinformation_for_hire","name":"Disinformation-for-Hire Firms (Team Jorge)","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":3,"summary":"Commercial contractors sell managed fake-avatar networks, hacking and fake news pages to sway elections for paying clients; Israel-based Team Jorge claimed more than 30 campaigns worldwide.","verdict":"Dissipate: effort spent manipulating attention instead of informing it.","dependencies":["social_media"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Team_Jorge"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#disinformation_for_hire"},{"id":"ai_generated_influence_ops","name":"AI-Generated Influence Operations","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":3,"summary":"Operations from Russia, China, Iran and an Israeli political firm used language models to mass-produce comments, articles and personas; OpenAI found none broke out to large authentic audiences.","verdict":"Dissipate: effort spent manipulating attention instead of informing it.","dependencies":["gpt3","chatgpt","internet_research_agency"],"region":"global","sources":["https://cdn.openai.com/threat-intelligence-reports/threat-intel-report-may-2024.pdf"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#ai_generated_influence_ops"},{"id":"iit_gwt_adversarial","name":"IIT vs GWT adversarial collaboration (Cogitate)","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Rival theorists pre-registered opposing predictions and tested them together; first results were announced in 2023 (published in Nature, 2025). Neither theory was fully vindicated.","verdict":"Advance: a new, cooperative way to settle scientific disputes.","dependencies":["iit","gwt","ncc"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Integrated_information_theory"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#iit_gwt_adversarial"},{"id":"psiquantum_ocs","name":"PsiQuantum 8x8 silicon-photonic optical circuit switch for AI data centers","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-28","approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Spin-off from its quantum photonics platform: all-optical port-to-port switching with ~1.2 dB insertion loss, 40 dB crosstalk and <3 ms reconfiguration, no amplification; samples shipping, products planned.","verdict":"Advance, incremental: quantum-computing R&D paying out early in AI networking power and heat.","dependencies":["silicon_photonics","ai_datacenters"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.psiquantum.com/optical-circuit-switch","https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/10/28/psiquantum-optical-circuit-switch-ai-data-centers/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"invention","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#psiquantum_ocs"},{"id":"sidon_erdos","name":"Erdős Sidon-set prize problem, LLM-formalized proof","year":2026,"date":"2026-05","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Counterexample {1,2,4,8,13}; Lean proof generated by ChatGPT (PNAS, May 2026).","verdict":"Advance.","dependencies":["erdos_728"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2531760123"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#sidon_erdos"},{"id":"frontiermath_erdos","name":"FrontierMath Erdős benchmark: 2/68 open problems solved","year":2026,"date":"2026-09","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"A pre-release GPT-6 Astra resolved #74 and #126 under controlled conditions.","verdict":"Advance.","dependencies":["unit_distance"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25050"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#frontiermath_erdos"},{"id":"w_meta_ai_112114913","name":"Meta AI","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Artificial intelligence laboratory owned by Meta. Feb 2023 Meta AI 65B 1.4T 6300 Non-commercial research Facebook's license and distribution scheme restricted access to approved researchers, but the model weights were leaked and became widely available.","verdict":"Advance: Meta's LLaMA (2023) released open-weight language models, accelerating open research.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Meta_AI","https://grokipedia.com/page/List_of_large_language_models","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q112114913"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_meta_ai_112114913"},{"id":"w_mixture_of_experts_30688561","name":"Mixture of experts","year":1991,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Machine learning technique. Apr 23 Tencent 295B Tencent Hy Community Mixture-of-experts model with 21B active parameters and a 256K-token context window. Preview predecessor to Hy3.","verdict":"Advance: Mixture-of-experts models (Jacobs, 1991; Shazeer, 2017) activate only a subset of parameters, enabling large efficient models.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Mixture_of_experts","https://grokipedia.com/page/List_of_large_language_models","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q30688561"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_mixture_of_experts_30688561"},{"id":"w_kimi_131993396","name":"Kimi","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Chatbot. Jul 8 Cognition AI Coding model for the Devin agent; trained from a Kimi K2.7 base with Cognition's reinforcement-learning pipeline. Available via Devin (not as open weights).","verdict":"Advance: Moonshot AI's Kimi (2023) offered long-context chat in China, with later open-weight models.","dependencies":[],"region":"china","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimi_%28AI%29","https://grokipedia.com/page/List_of_large_language_models","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q131993396"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"fixed-from-wikidata","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_kimi_131993396"},{"id":"w_glm_140356408","name":"GLM","year":2025,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Large language model by Z.ai. Aug 14 Z.ai 744B 30T Various 40B active","verdict":"Advance: Zhipu's GLM models (from 2021), released as Z.ai, are among China's leading open-weight models.","dependencies":["gpt3"],"region":"china","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLM_%28AI%29","https://grokipedia.com/page/List_of_large_language_models","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q140356408"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_glm_140356408"},{"id":"w_capstone_85160256","name":"CAPSTONE","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"NASA satellite to test and verify the calculated orbital stability planned for Lunar Gateway. US CAPSTONE Near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) of Moon Operational CAPSTONE, Lunar orbiting CubeSat that will test and verify the calculated orbital stability planned for the Gateway space station.","verdict":"Advance: CAPSTONE (2022) tested the near-rectilinear halo orbit planned for Gateway.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/CAPSTONE","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_artificial_satellites_and_space_probes","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q85160256"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#w_capstone_85160256"},{"id":"w_xposat_63992302","name":"XPoSat","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Indian space telescope. India XPoSat Earth Operational ISRO 's mission to study X-ray polarisation. Successfully launched on 1 January 2024 on a PSLV-DL launch vehicle.","verdict":"Advance: India's XPoSat (2024) studies X-ray polarization.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/XPoSat","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_artificial_satellites_and_space_probes","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q63992302"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#w_xposat_63992302"},{"id":"w_electrocatalyst_5357962","name":"Electrocatalyst","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Catalyst participating in electrochemical or redox reactions.","verdict":"Advance: Electrocatalysts like iridium and nickel–iron oxides lower the energy cost of splitting water, central to green hydrogen.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Electrocatalyst","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5357962"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#w_electrocatalyst_5357962"},{"id":"w_necrobotics_113369048","name":"Necrobotics","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Practice of using biotic materials as robotic components. Researchers introduce the concept of necrobotics and demonstrate it by repurposing dead spiders as robotic grippers by activating their gripping arms via applying pressurized air.","verdict":"Advance: Rice University researchers in 2022 turned dead spiders into pneumatic grippers, a cheap repurposing of biology's ready-made mechanics.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Necrobotics","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113369048"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_necrobotics_113369048"},{"id":"w_ectogenesis_451659","name":"Ectogenesis","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Artificial growth of an organism. First report of Synthetic embryos grown exclusively from mouse embryonic stem cells, without sperm or eggs or a uterus, with natural-like development and some surviving until day 8.5 where early organogenesis, including formation of fo…","verdict":"Advance: Synthetic mouse embryos grown from stem cells outside a womb (2022) push toward artificial gestation, with large implications for medicine and bioethics.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Ectogenesis","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q451659"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_ectogenesis_451659"},{"id":"w_remote_controlled_animal_7312075","name":"Remote controlled animal","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Animals controlled remotely by humans. Researchers report the development of remote controlled cyborg cockroaches functional if moving to sunlight for recharging.","verdict":"Advance: Solar-backpacked cyborg cockroaches (2022) steer remotely, small biohybrid platforms meant to search rubble after disasters.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Remote_control_animal","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7312075"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_remote_controlled_animal_7312075"},{"id":"w_bio_printing_17018741","name":"Bio-printing","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Biomaterials 3D printing. First success of a clinical trial for a 3D bioprinted transplant, an external ear to treat microtia, that is made from the patient's own cells is reported.","verdict":"Advance: A 3D-bioprinted ear made from the patient's own cells, implanted in 2022, was the first such living transplant, a step toward printed organs.","dependencies":["w_3d_printing_229367"],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/3D_bioprinting","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17018741"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_bio_printing_17018741"},{"id":"w_microphyte_589518","name":"Microphyte","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Microscopic algae, typically found in freshwater and marine systems, living in both the water column and sediment. Nanoengineers report the development of biocompatible microalgae hybrid microrobots for active drug-delivery in the lungs and the gastrointestinal tract (GT).","verdict":"Advance: Microalgae fix roughly half of Earth's carbon and are being engineered for biofuels, feed and carbon capture.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Microalgae","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q589518"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_microphyte_589518"},{"id":"w_biocomposite_864417","name":"Biocomposite","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Composite material reinforced by natural fibers. Researchers report the development of a biocomposite 3D printing ink, BactoInk, containing calcium carbonate -producing microorganisms which could be used for restoration, artificial reefs and potentially bone-repair.","verdict":"Advance: Natural-fibre composites printed in 2023 offer strong, biodegradable alternatives to fossil plastics in packaging and parts.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Biocomposite","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q864417"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_biocomposite_864417"},{"id":"w_neuroenhancement_1801475","name":"Neuroenhancement","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Targeted enhancement and extension of cognition in the healthy. Researchers demonstrate functional integration [ broken anchor ] of a magnetically steered microbot containing neurons, 'Mag-Neurobot', in a mouse \"organotypic hippocampal slice\" ( OHS ) as physical (semi-)artificial neurons.","verdict":"Advance: Brain implants and stimulation now restore lost functions; healthy-brain enhancement is still largely claimed, and it raises questions of fairness and safety.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Neuroenhancement","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1801475"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_neuroenhancement_1801475"},{"id":"w_artificial_gene_synthesis_4118276","name":"Artificial gene synthesis","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Fully artificial DNA production method based on solid-phase DNA synthesis. In 10 studies, researchers of the Sc2.0 project report yeast with a half- synthetic genome.","verdict":"Advance: Writing DNA from scratch; synthetic biology's printing press.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Artificial_gene_synthesis","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4118276"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_artificial_gene_synthesis_4118276"},{"id":"w_working_animal_228534","name":"Working animal","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Domesticated animals for assisting people.","verdict":"Advance: Harnessing animals for draft, transport and herding multiplied human muscle power.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Working_animal","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228534"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_working_animal_228534"},{"id":"w_cryopreservation_1144664","name":"Cryopreservation","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Process where cells, whole tissues, etc. are preserved by cooling to sub-zero temperatures. The first successful transplant of a functional cryopreserved mammalian kidney is reported. The study demonstrates a \"nanowarming\" technique for vitrification for up-to-100 days preservation of transplant organs.","verdict":"Advance: Vitrification preserved and then rewarmed rat kidneys for transplant in 2023, a step toward organ banking.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Cryopreservation","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1144664"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_cryopreservation_1144664"},{"id":"w_cellular_agriculture_27688866","name":"Cellular agriculture","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Production of agriculture products from cell cultures.","verdict":"Advance: Lab-grown meat was approved for sale in Singapore (2020) and the US (2023), aiming to produce protein without the land and emissions of livestock.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Cellular_agriculture","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q27688866"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_cellular_agriculture_27688866"},{"id":"w_cell_therapy_15268054","name":"Cell therapy","year":1968,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Therapy in which cellular material is injected into a patient. Four cell therapy companies die.","verdict":"Advance: Cell therapy, from bone-marrow grafts to engineered cells, uses living cells as medicine; early commercial ventures often failed before CAR-T succeeded.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Cell_therapy","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_biotechnology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15268054"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_cell_therapy_15268054"},{"id":"w_open_source_robotics_169290","name":"Open-source robotics","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Robotics developed with open-source hardware and free and open-source software, publicly sharing blueprints, schematics, and source code. A university reported the release of 'Quad-SDK' which may be the first open source full-stack software for large agile four-legged robots, compatible with the ROS. [ better source needed ]","verdict":"Advance: Open-source robotics, such as ROS (2007), lets researchers share code and hardware designs.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Open-source_robotics","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q169290"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_open_source_robotics_169290"},{"id":"w_agricultural_robot_4414810","name":"Agricultural robot","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Robot in agriculture. News outlets reported a novel agricultural robot for viable weed control using lasers [ image needed ] or \"laserweeding\". There are similar precision agriculture machines that have been reported before, also e.g.","verdict":"Advance: Laser weeding robots cut herbicide use and farm labor.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Agricultural_robot","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4414810"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#w_agricultural_robot_4414810"},{"id":"w_autonomous_underwater_vehicle_257406","name":"Autonomous underwater vehicle","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Untethered submersible manned or unmenned.","verdict":"Advance: Autonomous underwater robots for survey and seabed mining.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Autonomous_underwater_vehicle","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q257406"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#w_autonomous_underwater_vehicle_257406"},{"id":"w_mobile_security_3268325","name":"Mobile security","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Safeguards and best practices against security attacks or exploits that target software vulnerabilities in mobile devices.","verdict":"Advance: Mobile security protects phones that now hold banking, health and identity data.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Mobile_security","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3268325"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_mobile_security_3268325"},{"id":"w_existential_risk_from_artificial_intelli_21715237","name":"Existential risk from artificial intelligence","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Hypothesis that artificial general intelligence could result in human extinction.","verdict":"Advance: Serious argument that advanced AI could escape human control; it shapes safety research.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21715237"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#w_existential_risk_from_artificial_intelli_21715237"},{"id":"w_anti_money_laundering_2007303","name":"Anti–money laundering","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Money & Markets","domainId":"money","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Activities and regulations to prevent and detect money laundering. News outlets reported the first fully self-supervised anti–money laundering AI software using contemporary suboptimal datasets, LaundroGraph.","verdict":"Advance: Rules to detect laundering; useful but costly compliance.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Anti%E2%80%93money_laundering","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2007303"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/money-and-markets#w_anti_money_laundering_2007303"},{"id":"w_internet_privacy_175975","name":"Internet privacy","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Personal privacy concerning the storing, repurposing, provision to third parties, and displaying of information pertaining to oneself via Internet.","verdict":"Advance: Privacy law such as the EU's 2018 GDPR gives users rights over their data and pushes services to minimize what they collect.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Internet_privacy","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q175975"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#w_internet_privacy_175975"},{"id":"w_electronic_skin_14378123","name":"Electronic skin","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Electronics mimicing skin functionalities. Researchers reported a robotic finger covered in a type of manufactured living human skin.","verdict":"Advance: In 2022 Tokyo researchers covered a robot finger in living cultured human skin that heals itself, a step toward more lifelike touch for robots.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Electronic_skin","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q14378123"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#w_electronic_skin_14378123"},{"id":"w_3_nm_lithography_process_63207578","name":"3 nm lithography process","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Semiconductor manufacturing processes with a 3 nm GAAFET technology node. Samsung announced the first mass production of computer chips using a 3 nm process.","verdict":"Advance: Mass-produced gate-all-around transistors; Moore's law continues.","dependencies":["photolith"],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/3_nm_process","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q63207578"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_3_nm_lithography_process_63207578"},{"id":"w_neural_radiance_field_121362472","name":"Neural radiance field","year":2020,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"3D reconstruction technique using machine-learning. A method for editing NeRF scenes, a novel media technique from 2020, with natural language commands was demonstrated by Nvidia.","verdict":"Advance: Neural radiance fields (2020) reconstruct 3D scenes from photos, used in mapping and film.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Neural_radiance_field","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121362472"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_neural_radiance_field_121362472"},{"id":"w_text_to_image_model_113940039","name":"Text-to-image model","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Machine-learning model. A novel potentially significantly more efficient text-to-image approach, as implemented in MUSE, was reported.","verdict":"Advance: Text-to-image models like DALL-E and Stable Diffusion (2022) generate images from prompts.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Text-to-image_model","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113940039"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_text_to_image_model_113940039"},{"id":"w_generative_design_1502022","name":"Generative design","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Form finding process that can mimic nature’s evolutionary approach to design. Software for generating 3D dynamic scenes ( text-to-4D ), MAV3D, was reported.","verdict":"Advance: Generative design software explores many options to find lightweight, efficient parts for aircraft and cars.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Generative_design","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1502022"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_generative_design_1502022"},{"id":"w_brain_reading_4955700","name":"Brain-reading","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Use of brain measurements, e.g., fMRI or EEG, to decode brain stimuli. Researchers demonstrated a non-invasive brain-reading method. It can translate a person's neural activity into a continuous stream of text using fMRI data and transformer machine learning.","verdict":"Advance: Non-invasive fMRI decoders (2023) reconstructed the gist of heard stories from brain activity, a breakthrough that raises mental-privacy concerns.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Brain-reading","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4955700"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_brain_reading_4955700"},{"id":"w_wireless_mesh_network_6453712","name":"Wireless mesh network","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Radio nodes organized in a mesh topology. A two/multi-robot and beacons mesh communication paradigm for exploration by robotic probes, drones, spacecraft, disaster recovery rovers or underwater robots was reported.","verdict":"Advance: Self-organizing mesh radio nets relay data hop to hop, keeping disaster zones and robot swarms connected without towers.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Wireless_mesh_network","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6453712"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_wireless_mesh_network_6453712"},{"id":"w_bird_intelligence_182604","name":"Bird intelligence","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Study of intelligence in birds. Researchers showed parrots can use and enjoy using a videocalling system.","verdict":"Advance: Studies of tool-making crows and parrots who video-call each other (2023) reveal that complex cognition evolved independently in birds.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Bird_intelligence","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182604"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_bird_intelligence_182604"},{"id":"w_traffic_analysis_7832483","name":"Traffic analysis","year":1914,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Military","domainId":"military","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"compete","impact":3,"summary":"Process of intercepting and examining messages. Researchers demonstrated how pre-installed apps on Android smartphones in China are used for mass surveillance in China.","verdict":"Compete: Analysing who talks to whom, without reading the content, located enemy units from WWI onward, and it now underpins metadata surveillance.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Traffic_analysis","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7832483"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/military#w_traffic_analysis_7832483"},{"id":"w_dating_app_28134845","name":"Dating app","year":2009,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Online dating service presented through a mobile phone application.","verdict":"Advance: Mobile dating apps like Grindr (2009) and Tinder (2012) now account for a large share of new couples, with documented attention-capture design.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Dating_app","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28134845"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_dating_app_28134845"},{"id":"w_brain_implant_555840","name":"Brain implant","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Technological devices that connect directly to a biological subject's brain. Researchers demonstrated an open-brain surgery-free brain implant, Stentrode, that can record brain activity from a nearby blood vessel, showing it can be used to operate a computer.","verdict":"Advance: Brain-spine interfaces in 2023 let a paralysed man walk naturally by thought, showing implants can bypass spinal injury.","dependencies":["w_implant_486975"],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Brain_implant","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q555840"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_brain_implant_555840"},{"id":"w_artificial_cell_1176234","name":"Artificial cell","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Engineered particle that mimics one or many functions of a biological cell. A study demonstrated functional integration of a magnetically steered microbot containing neurons, 'Mag-Neurobot', in a mouse \" organotypic hippocampal slice \" as physical (semi-) artificial neurons.","verdict":"Advance: Synthetic cell-like systems; a step toward building life from parts.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Artificial_cell","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1176234"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_artificial_cell_1176234"},{"id":"w_implant_486975","name":"Implant","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Medical device surgically installed in the body to replace, support, or enhance a biological structure. Researchers reported the development of a fuel cell implant powered by blood glucose. It can also release insulin at certain levels and have enough energy to allow smartphone implant control.","verdict":"Advance: Bioresorbable electronic implants (2023) monitor healing and then dissolve, removing the need for a second surgery.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implant","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q486975"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_implant_486975"},{"id":"w_open_source_artificial_intelligence_120785614","name":"Open-source artificial intelligence","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Concept of open applied to AI. Notable innovations: LAION releases a first version of BUD-E, a fully open source voice assistant, an automatic waste sorting system that can distinguish between over 500 waste categories is released, researchers describe an AI ecosyst…","verdict":"Advance: Open-source AI, from BLOOM to LLaMA and DeepSeek, spreads AI capability beyond a few labs.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Open-source_artificial_intelligence","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q120785614"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_open_source_artificial_intelligence_120785614"},{"id":"w_optical_storage_2248059","name":"Optical storage","year":1958,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Storage of data on a medium using marks in a pattern, which can be read back with the aid of light. Researchers describe an approach for an optical disk with petabit capacity,","verdict":"Advance: David Paul Gregg's 1958 optical disc patent led to LaserDisc, CD and DVD.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Optical_storage","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2248059"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_optical_storage_2248059"},{"id":"w_openai_o1_130288245","name":"OpenAI o1","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"2024 AI model from OpenAI. DeepSeek releases DeepSeek-R1 on 20 January, a large language model based on DeepSeek-V3 utilising a chain-of-thought process similar to OpenAI o1.","verdict":"Advance: OpenAI's o1 (2024) used chain-of-thought reasoning to improve on maths and coding.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q130288245"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_openai_o1_130288245"},{"id":"w_2025_ram_shortage_137441622","name":"2025 RAM shortage","year":2025,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Ongoing shortage of RAM and SSD. In November, a supply shortage in semiconductor memory begins, marked by significant price increases in consumer DRAM components.","verdict":"Advance: Memory shortage driven by AI data-center demand; a supply-chain stress signal.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%93present_global_memory_supply_shortage","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q137441622"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#w_2025_ram_shortage_137441622"},{"id":"w_gravitational_wave_background_5598005","name":"Gravitational wave background","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Random gravitational-wave signal potentially detectable by gravitational wave experiments. 2023 – Experimental evidence of stochastic gravitational wave background","verdict":"Advance: NANOGrav and other pulsar timing arrays found evidence of a gravitational-wave background in 2023.","dependencies":["w_gravitational_wave_190035"],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Gravitational_wave_background","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_fundamental_physics_discoveries","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5598005"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#w_gravitational_wave_background_5598005"},{"id":"w_neutrino_astronomy_1801478","name":"Neutrino astronomy","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Observational astronomy that benefits from the direct, or indirect, detection of neutrinos. 2023 – First \"image\" of the Milky Way in neutrinos instead of light","verdict":"Advance: IceCube's 2023 neutrino image of the Milky Way was the first galactic map made with neutrinos.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Neutrino_astronomy","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_fundamental_physics_discoveries","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1801478"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#w_neutrino_astronomy_1801478"},{"id":"w_artificial_photosynthesis_654623","name":"Artificial photosynthesis","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Process of photosynthesis. 2022 – Researchers in Cambridge develop floating artificial leaves for light-driven hydrogen production. The lightweight, flexible devices are scalable and can float on water similar to lotus leaves.","verdict":"Advance: Artificial leaves that make fuel from sunlight.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Artificial_photosynthesis","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_hydrogen_technologies","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q654623"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#w_artificial_photosynthesis_654623"},{"id":"w_mojo_118152673","name":"Mojo","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Programming language. Mojo Modular Python, Rust, Cython, C, C++, CUDA, Swift, Zig","verdict":"Advance: Chris Lattner's Mojo (2023) aims to combine Python syntax with systems-level speed for AI.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Mojo_(programming_language)","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_programming_languages","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118152673"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"wikidata-match","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#w_mojo_118152673"},{"id":"w_spectrum_65245255","name":"Spectrum (Isar Aerospace launcher)","year":2026,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Two-stage small launch vehicle by Isar Aerospace. 2026 Isar Aerospace launches Spectrum, from Andøya Spaceport becoming the first successful flight from a private Launch provider in Northern Europe.","verdict":"Advance: Isar Aerospace's Spectrum launches from Andøya, offering Europe small-launch capacity (claimed).","dependencies":[],"region":"europe","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_%28rocket%29","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_rocket_and_missile_technology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65245255"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#w_spectrum_65245255"},{"id":"w_sleeping_car_830565","name":"Sleeping car","year":1857,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Railway passenger wagon with private sleeping berths. 2023 – A comeback of sleeping trains in Europe is reported as demand for more comfortable travel modes than overnight buses and sustainable transport rises. A new generation of such trains is released.","verdict":"Advance: George Pullman's 1864 sleeping cars made overnight rail travel comfortable; night trains are returning in Europe since 2020.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Sleeping_car","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_transportation_technology","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q830565"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#w_sleeping_car_830565"},{"id":"w_respiratory_syncytial_virus_vaccine_96401585","name":"Respiratory syncytial virus vaccine","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). 2023 – First respiratory syncytial virus vaccine","verdict":"Advance: GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo (2023) became the first RSV vaccines, protecting older adults and, via mothers, newborns.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Respiratory_syncytial_virus_vaccine","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_human_vaccines","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q96401585"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_respiratory_syncytial_virus_vaccine_96401585"},{"id":"w_chikungunya_vaccine_123385957","name":"Chikungunya vaccine","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Vaccine intended to provide acquired immunity against the chikungunya virus. 2023 – First vaccine for Chikungunya","verdict":"Advance: Valneva's Ixchiq, approved in November 2023, became the first chikungunya vaccine, protecting travellers and endemic regions from a disabling mosquito-borne fever.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chikungunya_vaccine","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_human_vaccines","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q123385957"],"sourcePrimary":"wikipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_chikungunya_vaccine_123385957"},{"id":"agco_digit_pilot","name":"AGCO signs Agility Digit humanoid pilot (Kansas plant, 2027)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-20","approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":2,"summary":"Commercial agreement for Digit to sort, stack and place totes in AGCO's Hesston facility from 2027.","verdict":"Advance, early.","dependencies":["humanoids"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://investors.agcocorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/agco-and-agility-robotics-advance-smart-manufacturing-humanoid"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#agco_digit_pilot"},{"id":"ai_crop_editing","name":"AI-guided transgene-free crop editing pipeline (Biographica + Hudson River)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-09","approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":2,"summary":"AI gene-target ranking paired with transgene-free editing and regeneration, starting with tomatoes.","verdict":"Advance, early.","dependencies":["synthetic_bio"],"region":"europe","sources":["https://www.agribusinesswire.com/articles/biographica-and-hudson-river-pair-on-ai-guided-crop-editing-697a98ea"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#ai_crop_editing"},{"id":"gxo_digit_expansion","name":"GXO expands Agility Digit humanoids to two more US sites","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-26","approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":2,"summary":"After 100,000+ tote moves in Georgia, Digit deployments extend to Statesville NC and Lebanon TN from early 2027.","verdict":"Advance, incremental: humanoids are moving from pilots to multi-site deployment.","dependencies":["humanoids"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/26/3388115/0/en/agility-robotics-highlights-commercial-momentum-and-growing-enterprise-demand-for-digit-humanoid-robot.html","https://mfn.se/all/a/gxo-logistics-inc/gxo-and-agility-robotics-expand-partnership-to-accelerate-deployment-of-humanoids-in-u-s-operations-d1cb6bba"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":"implementation","url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#gxo_digit_expansion"},{"id":"ai_agent_mouse_surgery","name":"AI agent selects gene-therapy vector and performs stereotaxic injection in epileptic mouse","year":2026,"date":"2026-10-28","approx":false,"domain":"Life 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withdraws 3 math manuscripts a day after release (sign error)","year":2026,"date":"2026-10","approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"dissipate","impact":2,"summary":"Sign error in \"Algebraicity of Weil classes on split abelian eightfolds\" invalidated it and two dependents (Kuga–Satake for K3; rational Hodge for products of K3 surfaces).","verdict":"Dissipate: unreviewed mass release puts the checking burden on mathematicians.","dependencies":["openai_math_722"],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://raw.githubusercontent.com/openai/math/main/history.md","https://retractionwatch.com/2026/10/08/openai-withdraws-preprints-722-manuscripts-unsolved-math-problems/"],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#openai_math_withdrawn3"},{"id":"w_media_literacy_1507246","name":"Media literacy","year":2022,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":2,"summary":"Encompasses the practices that allow people to access, critically evaluate, and create media.","verdict":"Advance: Teaching people to evaluate sources; a defense against manipulation.","dependencies":[],"region":"n_america","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Media_literacy","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1507246"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#w_media_literacy_1507246"},{"id":"w_digital_literacy_242069","name":"Digital literacy","year":2023,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":2,"summary":"An individual's ability to find, evaluate, and compose clear information from a digital source. Researchers reported ' digital resignation ', calling for regulations and education reform.","verdict":"Advance: Teaching people to evaluate online sources helps them function in a networked economy and resist manipulation.","dependencies":["w_media_literacy_1507246"],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Digital_literacy","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q242069"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#w_digital_literacy_242069"},{"id":"w_umbrella_review_104859001","name":"Umbrella review","year":1990,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":2,"summary":"Review of systematic reviews or meta-analyses.","verdict":"Advance: Umbrella reviews synthesize multiple meta-analyses, giving guideline writers the broadest evidence summary in medicine.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Umbrella_review","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_computing_2020%E2%80%93present","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q104859001"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"audited","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#w_umbrella_review_104859001"},{"id":"w_3d_reconstruction_4464732","name":"DESI 3D map of the universe","year":2024,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"frontier","statusRaw":"emerging","category":"advance","impact":2,"summary":"Reconstruction. 2024 – The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) released a precise 3D map of the cosmos, providing evidence that dark energy, the force accelerating the universe's expansion, may be weakening over time, challenging the cosmologi…","verdict":"Advance: DESI's 3D map of the cosmos, a precision test of dark energy.","dependencies":[],"region":"unattributed","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/3D_reconstruction","https://grokipedia.com/page/Timeline_of_fundamental_physics_discoveries","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4464732"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"heuristic","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#w_3d_reconstruction_4464732"},{"id":"f_education","name":"Mass education and numeracy","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"A population that can read, calculate and reason, and so can build, check and govern advanced technology.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["reformation_literacy","research_univ","printing_press"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Literacy"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Most adults worldwide are literate (UNESCO), but the World Bank finds most 10-year-olds in low- and middle-income countries cannot read a simple text.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_education"},{"id":"secure_compute","name":"Verifiable AI hardware and confidential computing","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Chips that attest what model they run and on what data. This is the hardware root of trust for AI governance and private voting.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["pqc","chiplets"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Confidential_computing"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Confidential-computing GPUs and TEEs are in commercial cloud use.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#secure_compute"},{"id":"atomic_imaging","name":"Atomic-resolution chemical imaging","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"Seeing every atom and bond in a working molecular system, the quality-control tool for atomically precise manufacturing.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["w_cryogenic_electron_microscopy_5190506","w_electron_microscope_132560"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Electron_microscope"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Cryo-EM and atomic-resolution microscopy are routine.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#atomic_imaging"},{"id":"digital_public_infra","name":"India Stack","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Open digital identity, payments, and data rails that make public services instant and cheap.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["aadhaar","upi","f_rule_of_law"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Aadhaar and UPI serve over a billion people.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#digital_public_infra"},{"id":"global_connect","name":"Global gigabit connectivity","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Satellite and terrestrial networks bring every person online at broadband speed, the substrate for digital government and AI services.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["starlink","starlink_mobile_11m"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Satellite_internet_constellation"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Satellite and fibre broadband reach most regions; gigabit not universal.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#global_connect"},{"id":"solar_tw","name":"Terawatt-scale solar plus storage","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Tandem solar cells and cheap batteries deployed at multi-terawatt scale. The near-term workhorse of abundance.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["solar_cheap","perovskite","sodium_battery","long_storage"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Solar_power"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Terawatts of PV installed; solar overtook nuclear generation in H1 2026 (Ember).","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#solar_tw"},{"id":"connectome_fly","name":"Whole-brain connectome of a fly","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Every neuron and synapse of an adult fruit-fly brain mapped (FlyWire, 2024), a first full wiring diagram of a complex brain.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["neuron_doctrine","deep_learning","w_cryogenic_electron_microscopy_5190506"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Connectome"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Complete adult fly connectome published (FlyWire) and now in routine research use.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#connectome_fly"},{"id":"microbiome_eng","name":"Engineered microbiome therapies","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Designed gut and skin microbial communities that treat disease and support closed-loop life support.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["synthetic_bio","ngs"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Microbiome"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Approved microbiome therapies for C. difficile; narrow use.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#microbiome_eng"},{"id":"global_grid","name":"Continental HVDC and superconducting grids","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Long-distance, low-loss transmission that moves sunlight across time zones and links every source to every load.","verdict":"Precursor to: Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["hts_magnets","solar_tw","f_permitting"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/High-voltage_direct_current"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"National UHVDC backbones operate (China); continental and superconducting links not yet.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#global_grid"},{"id":"water_abundance","name":"Water abundance","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Desalination and atmospheric water harvesting cheap enough that fresh water is never scarce.","verdict":"Precursor to: Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["energy_too_cheap","solar_tw","f_cheap_energy"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Desalination"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Large-scale desalination supplies most domestic water in some countries (e.g. Israel).","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#water_abundance"},{"id":"universal_translation","name":"Universal real-time translation","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Speech-to-speech translation across every language in real time, removing language as a barrier to deliberation.","verdict":"Precursor to: Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["transformer","reasoning_models"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Machine_translation"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"deploying","progressNote":"Real-time speech translation ships in consumer devices.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#universal_translation"},{"id":"f_rule_of_law","name":"Rule of law and secure property and contracts","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Courts that enforce contracts and protect property, for strangers and rulers alike. Without them, nobody funds a 20-year bet.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["rule_of_law","common_law","property_rights","glorious_revolution"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Rule_of_law"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Strong in a minority of countries; the World Justice Project index has recorded more countries declining than improving for several years.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_rule_of_law"},{"id":"f_honest_money","name":"Honest money and deep capital markets","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Money & Markets","domainId":"money","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Sound money and cheap, honest long-term credit that can fund moonshots. Historic usury bans were drift; so is predatory debt.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["glorious_revolution","amsterdam_wisselbank","stock_exchange","central_bank","usury_bans"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Capital_market"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Deep, honest capital markets exist in a few financial centres; much of the world lacks affordable long-term credit.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/money-and-markets#f_honest_money"},{"id":"f_integrity","name":"Low corruption and institutional integrity","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Public money and permits go where the rules say, so big programmes deliver instead of leaking.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["rule_of_law","civil_exam","antitrust"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Corruption_Perceptions_Index"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Transparency International's CPI 2024: over two-thirds of countries score below 50/100; a handful show that low corruption is achievable.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_integrity"},{"id":"f_long_horizon","name":"Long-horizon, stable governance","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Institutions that can commit to and fund multi-decade programmes across elections and leadership changes.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["constitution","apollo","manhattan","nsf"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Megaproject"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Multi-decade programmes exist (CERN, ITER, national space and grid plans), but most budgets are re-fought every year.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_long_horizon"},{"id":"f_open_inquiry","name":"Open inquiry and free speech","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"The freedom to question, publish and be wrong in public: the engine of error correction.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["enlightenment","printing_press","peer_review","galileo_affair"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Freedom_of_speech"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Freedom House has reported almost two decades of consecutive global decline; open inquiry is secure in a minority of countries.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_open_inquiry"},{"id":"f_talent","name":"Talent mobility (high-skill immigration, brain circulation)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"The best minds can move to where the work is and move back, so talent compounds instead of being wasted.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["research_univ","university","royal_society"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"High-skill visas exist but are capped and slow almost everywhere; circulation works mainly among a few hubs.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_talent"},{"id":"f_cheap_energy","name":"Abundant, cheap energy","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Energy per person is the root of every capability on this spire, from compute to desalination to launch.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["electric_grid","nuclear_power","solar_passes_nuclear"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Energy_poverty"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Solar is now the cheapest new power in many markets, yet hundreds of millions of people still lack electricity (IEA).","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#f_cheap_energy"},{"id":"f_peace","name":"Deterrence and great-power peace","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Military","domainId":"military","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"No great-power war, so capital and talent go into building instead of destroying.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["manhattan","ww2","bretton_woods","red_cross"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Long_Peace"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"No direct great-power war since 1945 (the 'Long Peace'), but proxy wars and rising rivalry persist.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/military#f_peace"},{"id":"f_trust","name":"High-trust society","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Strangers cooperate, contracts are cheap and institutions are believed, which makes ambitious collective projects possible.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["social_contract","red_cross","rule_of_law"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Generalised trust is high in a few countries (e.g. the Nordics) and low in most, per the World Values Survey.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_trust"},{"id":"ai_compute_abund","name":"Zettascale AI compute","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Training and inference clusters a thousand times larger than today's, built on next-node lithography, chiplets, and stacked memory. Nearly every other precursor draws on it.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["ai_dc_buildout","euv","high_na","chiplets","hbm","f_cheap_energy"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Supercomputer"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Clusters of 100k+ accelerators run; zettascale systems announced but not yet the norm.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#ai_compute_abund"},{"id":"ftqc","name":"Fault-tolerant quantum computing at scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Millions of physical qubits running error-corrected algorithms. It unlocks exact chemistry, materials design, and quantum simulation of physics.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["willow","neutral_atom","qec","f_long_horizon","f_talent"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Threshold_theorem"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Below-threshold logical qubits and chip-to-chip links shown; no large fault-tolerant machine.","tier":1,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#ftqc"},{"id":"protein_machines","name":"De novo designed protein machines","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"AI-designed proteins that act as motors, switches, and enzymes nature never evolved. These are the soft path to molecular machines.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["alphafold3","alphafold"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Protein_design"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"De novo designed rotors, switches and binders work in the lab; few products.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#protein_machines"},{"id":"f_permitting","name":"Fast permitting and clear, minimal regulation","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"Clear standards that create markets (like the shipping container) instead of open-ended review that adds drag.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["iso_container","post_tmi","reg_capture"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Environmental_impact_statement"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"A few jurisdictions build fast; a typical US federal environmental impact statement takes over four years (CEQ).","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_permitting"},{"id":"formal_verif_scale","name":"Formally verified AI-written software","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"AI writes proofs alongside code, so critical software (grids, reactors, governments, implants) is provably correct.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["lean","ai_coding","ai_math"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Formal_verification"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"2026-10-26 · Axiom AI agents machine-checked the 15,000-page CFSG in Lean (axiommath.ai + github.com/AxiomMath/CFSG); proof-scale, not software, so no level change","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#formal_verif_scale"},{"id":"dna_nanotech","name":"Programmable DNA nanomachines","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"DNA origami and DNA walkers that position molecules with nanometre precision. This is a working toolkit for building at the molecular scale.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["synthetic_bio","dna_storage"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/DNA_nanotechnology"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"DNA origami devices and robots work in labs and animal studies.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#dna_nanotech"},{"id":"general_robots","name":"General-purpose humanoid workforce","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"Robots that learn any manual task from demonstration and work safely beside people.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["humanoids","optimus","rt2","sim2real","dexterous_hands"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Humanoid_robot"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Humanoids in paid pilots (e.g. Digit at GXO, now multi-site); not a general workforce.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#general_robots"},{"id":"molecular_motors","name":"Synthetic molecular motors","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"Chemist-designed rotors, shuttles, and switches (Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2016), the first artificial molecular machines.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["chemistry","w_fullerene_178026"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Molecular_machine"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Synthetic molecular motors made and studied in the lab (2016 Nobel); no applications.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#molecular_motors"},{"id":"dexterous_hands","name":"Human-level dexterous robot hands","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"Robot hands that manipulate anything a human can, the gap between today's humanoids and a general workforce.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["rt2","sim2real"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Lab hands do in-hand manipulation; not at human level.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#dexterous_hands"},{"id":"auto_lab","name":"Self-driving laboratories","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Robotic labs where AI plans, runs, and analyzes experiments in closed loops, 24/7. This turns science from artisanal into industrial.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["ai_science","rt2","humanoids","f_talent","f_education"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Laboratory_automation"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"2026-10-28 · Same Exin claim: AI agent chose among 19 vectors and ran the in-vivo step (founder post; claimed); no level change","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#auto_lab"},{"id":"ai_run_math","name":"AI-run mathematics","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"AI systems find, prove and formally check new theorems with people as reviewers. Expert verification, not generation, is now the bottleneck.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["ai_math","lean","kls_conjecture","brennan_conjecture","navier_stokes_claim","euler_unforced_blowup","openai_math_722","openai_math_withdrawn3"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"2026-10-26 · Axiom AI agents produced a sorry-free 43.1M-line Lean proof of CFSG in 24 days and repaired a published gap (axiommath.ai, Oct 26); formalization, not a new solve, so no level change","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#ai_run_math"},{"id":"materials_genome","name":"Inverse materials design","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Specify the properties and AI returns a synthesizable material. It is already producing millions of candidate crystals.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["gnome","gnome_db","ai_science"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"AI predicted hundreds of thousands of stable crystals and robots synthesized dozens; not routine industrial practice.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#materials_genome"},{"id":"hts_magnets","name":"REBCO high-field superconducting magnets at industrial scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"High-temperature superconducting tape (REBCO) magnets at 20 T and above, made by the thousand. They enable compact fusion, maglev, and magnetospheric shields.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["w_superconductivity_124131","fusion_pre"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/High-temperature_superconductivity"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"20 tesla REBCO fusion-scale magnet tested; tape supply still scaling.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#hts_magnets"},{"id":"advanced_fission","name":"Mass-produced advanced fission","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Factory-built reactors (molten salt, high-temperature gas, fast) deployed like aircraft engines. This is firm power for industry and space.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["smr","nuclear_power","f_permitting"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Generation_IV_reactor"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"A handful of advanced reactors operate (e.g. China's HTR-PM); not mass-produced.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#advanced_fission"},{"id":"lights_out_everything","name":"Lights-out factories for most goods","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Fully automated production lines in most industries, not just a few showcase plants.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["fanuc_lights_out","general_robots","gigacasting"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Lights_out_(manufacturing)"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Lights-out lines exist for some goods (electronics, robot parts); not most goods.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#lights_out_everything"},{"id":"starship_full_reuse","name":"Fully reusable Starship and orbital refilling","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Both stages caught and reflown and propellant transferred in orbit. Launch costs fall by another order of magnitude.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["starship_orbit","booster_catch","raptor"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/SpaceX_Starship"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Booster catch and reflight shown; full ship reuse and orbital refilling not yet operational.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#starship_full_reuse"},{"id":"space_nuclear","name":"Space nuclear power (kilowatt to megawatt reactors)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Compact reactors for lunar nights, Martian dust storms, and deep-space industry.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["advanced_fission","nuclear_power"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Kilopower"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Kilopower (KRUSTY) ground-tested; nothing flown.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#space_nuclear"},{"id":"isru","name":"In-situ resource utilization (propellant, water, metals)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Making propellant, oxygen, and metals from local ice and rock. MOXIE has made oxygen on Mars.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["mars_rovers","lunar_base","space_nuclear"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/In_situ_resource_utilization"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"MOXIE made oxygen on Mars; no production plant.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#isru"},{"id":"space_industry","name":"Orbital industry","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Factories, fuel depots, and assembly yards in orbit and on the Moon. Products include fibre optics, pharmaceuticals, and large structures.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["starship_full_reuse","lunar_base","general_robots","mass_driver","f_honest_money","f_peace"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Space_manufacturing"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"In-orbit drug crystallization capsules returned (Varda); small volumes.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#space_industry"},{"id":"construction_robots","name":"Autonomous construction robots","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Robots that 3D-print and assemble buildings, roads, and landing pads, on Earth and off it.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["printed_house","general_robots","f_permitting"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Construction_3D_printing"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"3D-printed homes and robotic excavation on real sites; small share.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#construction_robots"},{"id":"space_resource_law","name":"Space resource property law","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Clear international rules for extracting and owning space resources (Artemis Accords and successors).","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["wto","iss","f_rule_of_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Artemis_Accords"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"National laws and Artemis Accords in force; nothing extracted under them.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#space_resource_law"},{"id":"metamaterials_adv","name":"Programmable metamaterials","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Materials whose mechanical, optical, and thermal properties are designed in, from heat shields to cloaks for the radiation environment.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["materials_genome","w_3d_printing_229367"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Metamaterial"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces in field trials; niche products.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#metamaterials_adv"},{"id":"nuclear_propulsion","name":"Nuclear thermal and nuclear electric propulsion","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Halving transit times to Mars and opening the outer system. Ground-tested in the 1960s (NERVA).","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["space_nuclear","w_ion_thruster_205702"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Nuclear_thermal_rocket"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Nuclear thermal engines ground-tested in the NERVA era; none flown.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#nuclear_propulsion"},{"id":"connectome_mouse","name":"Whole mouse-brain connectome","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Synapse-level wiring of a mammalian brain. Cubic-millimetre pieces have already been mapped (MICrONS).","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["connectome_fly","ai_compute_abund"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Connectome"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Cubic-millimetre mouse cortex mapped (MICrONS); whole brain not yet.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#connectome_mouse"},{"id":"agent_societies","name":"LLM-agent simulated societies","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Populations of AI agents with realistic preferences, used to study how people respond to rules (generative agents, 2023).","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming, Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["ai_agents","w_cellular_automaton_189156","game_theory"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Agent-based_model"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Simulations of 1,000 agents modelled on real people reproduce survey answers.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#agent_societies"},{"id":"econ_twins","name":"Digital twins of economies and cities","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"High-fidelity simulations of a real economy or city, calibrated on live data.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming, Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["agent_societies","ai_compute_abund","digital_public_infra","global_connect"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Digital_twin"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"City digital twins operate (e.g. Virtual Singapore); economy twins are research.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#econ_twins"},{"id":"evidence_policy","name":"Evidence-based policy at scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Policy randomized trials, pre-registration, and sunset clauses as standard practice.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming, Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["rct","ebm","progress_studies","f_integrity","f_education"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Evidence-based_policy"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"RCT-backed programmes scaled in some countries; not standard practice.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#evidence_policy"},{"id":"rules_as_code","name":"Machine-readable, verified law","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Legislation written as executable, formally checked code, so contradictions and loopholes are found before passage.","verdict":"Precursor to: Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["formal_verif_scale","constitution","f_rule_of_law"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Some tax and benefit rules encoded and used for simulation (e.g. OpenFisca); not law of record.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#rules_as_code"},{"id":"interplanetary_net","name":"Interplanetary internet","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Laser relays and delay-tolerant networking linking Earth, Moon, and Mars.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["global_connect","starlink"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Interplanetary_Internet"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Delay-tolerant networking on ISS and deep-space laser link tests.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#interplanetary_net"},{"id":"long_storage","name":"Long-duration grid storage","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Week-long storage (iron-air, thermal, pumped) that makes intermittent power firm.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["sodium_battery","megapack"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Grid_energy_storage"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"First multi-day iron-air plants built; 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no human organs.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#organ_vitrification"},{"id":"charter_cities","name":"Charter cities and governance sandboxes","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"New jurisdictions that pilot rules at city scale and measure outcomes, the real-world test after simulation.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming, Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["sez","f_rule_of_law"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"A few charter-city projects (e.g. Próspera) operate; tiny scale.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#charter_cities"},{"id":"photonic_compute","name":"Photonic and optical computing at scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Moving data and some arithmetic onto light to break the power wall of electronic interconnect. 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formal trials began, not routine.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#xeno_routine"},{"id":"in_vivo_delivery","name":"Targeted gene delivery to any tissue","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Lipid nanoparticles and engineered capsids that reach any organ, including brain and muscle, on command.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["mrna_vaccine","prime_editing","in_vivo_crispr"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Gene_delivery"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Liver-targeted LNP editing works in patients; most tissues remain out of reach.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#in_vivo_delivery"},{"id":"cancer_managed","name":"Cancer as a managed condition","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Detection early enough and therapy precise enough that cancer rarely kills.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["mced_scale","in_vivo_cart","ai_drug_approved"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Cancer"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Some cancers (e.g. CML) are chronic conditions; 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multi-analyte sensors still in trials.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#health_monitoring"},{"id":"autonomous_surgery","name":"Autonomous robotic surgery","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Surgical robots that plan and execute operations under supervision, making transplants and implants routine everywhere.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["da_vinci","general_robots","virtual_human"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Robotic_surgery"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"2026-10-28 · Exin Therapeutics claims an AI agent planned and drove a stereotaxic gene-vector injection in an epileptic mouse (YC/founder post; claimed, unreviewed); no level change","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#autonomous_surgery"},{"id":"planetary_defense","name":"Planetary defense (asteroid deflection)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Military","domainId":"military","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Detecting and deflecting hazardous asteroids, shown by NASA's DART impact in 2022. The same skills later move icy bodies on purpose.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["reusable_rocket","launch_cost","f_peace"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Asteroid_impact_avoidance"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"DART changed an asteroid's orbit; no operational system.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/military#planetary_defense"},{"id":"atom_interferometry","name":"Atom-interferometer gravity sensors","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Matter-wave interferometers measuring gravity and spacetime with record precision.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["laser","w_bose_einstein_condensate_46202"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Atom_interferometer"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Commercial quantum gravimeters exist; space use experimental.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#atom_interferometry"},{"id":"optical_clocks","name":"Networked optical atomic clocks","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Clocks so precise that they sense centimetre changes in gravitational potential, a new instrument for testing relativity.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["laser","global_connect"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Atomic_clock"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Clocks compared over fibre networks; second not yet redefined.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#optical_clocks"},{"id":"liquid_democracy","name":"Liquid democracy","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Delegable, revocable votes that combine direct and representative democracy.","verdict":"Precursor to: Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["deliberation_scale","zk_identity"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Liquid_democracy"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Used in party and organisation votes; not in public government.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#liquid_democracy"},{"id":"automation_dividend","name":"Automation dividend","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Sharing the output of a robot economy with every citizen, so abundance is universal and not concentrated.","verdict":"Precursor to: Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["robot_economy","digital_public_infra","f_honest_money"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Universal_basic_income"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"demonstrated","progressNote":"Cash-transfer pilots and resource dividends; no automation dividend at scale.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#automation_dividend"},{"id":"agi","name":"Artificial general intelligence","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"AI systems that match expert humans across most cognitive work, including open-ended research and engineering. It is the common engine behind nearly every moonshot.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["ai_agents","reasoning_models","world_models","ai_compute_abund","f_talent"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Artificial_general_intelligence"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Frontier models are broad but uneven; no agreed demonstration of general intelligence.","tier":2,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#agi"},{"id":"ai_alignment","name":"Verifiable AI alignment and oversight","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Methods to specify, verify, and audit what powerful AI systems do and why. This is a precondition for trusting AI with science, governance, and our minds.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["ai_policy","lean","reasoning_models","interp","compute_governance","f_open_inquiry","f_trust","machine_ethics_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/AI_alignment"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"RLHF-style training is deployed, but no method yet verifies alignment.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#ai_alignment"},{"id":"quantum_chem_exact","name":"Chemically exact molecular simulation","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Predicting reactions, catalysts, and molecular machines from first principles before synthesis. This is the design tool for nanotech, batteries, drugs, and superconductors.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["ftqc","ai_science","alphafold3"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Computational_chemistry"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Exact simulation is limited to small molecules; quantum advantage for chemistry not shown.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#quantum_chem_exact"},{"id":"interp","name":"Mechanistic interpretability","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Reading the algorithms inside neural networks feature by feature, so AI reasoning can be audited rather than trusted blindly.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["deep_learning","transformer"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Feature and circuit tracing on frontier models; no full understanding.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#interp"},{"id":"compute_governance","name":"International AI compute governance","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Treaties and monitoring of frontier compute that make advanced AI development legible and cooperative.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["ai_policy","chip_controls","secure_compute","f_integrity","f_peace"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Regulation_of_artificial_intelligence"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Unilateral export controls; no international regime.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#compute_governance"},{"id":"mechanosynthesis","name":"Scanning-probe mechanosynthesis","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"Placing individual atoms with a probe tip to form covalent bonds on command. Simple cases have been shown (Si atom manipulation); general reliability has not.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["w_fullerene_178026","quantum_chem_exact"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Single-atom placement by scanning probe; no tool-built covalent structures.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#mechanosynthesis"},{"id":"molecular_mfg","name":"Atomically precise manufacturing","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":7,"summary":"Building products with every atom in its designed place: the bridge between biology's machines and Drexler's assemblers.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Post-scarcity energy and matter, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["mechanosynthesis","dna_nanotech","protein_machines","quantum_chem_exact","molecular_motors","atomic_imaging"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Molecular_assembler"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Atomically precise patterning in lab demos only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#molecular_mfg"},{"id":"solve_everything","name":"\"Solve Everything\": AI-run science","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Automated discovery across all fields: AI generates hypotheses, tests them in robotic labs, and formally verifies results. It feeds every capstone.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["agi","auto_lab","ai_math","ai_science","ai_run_math","f_open_inquiry"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"AI-driven results remain almost all in math (ledger: 1 physics claim, unverified); no field yet runs on AI-led discovery.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#solve_everything"},{"id":"fusion_power","name":"Commercial fusion power","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Net-electric fusion plants delivering power to the grid. Ignition has been shown; engineering the plant is the remaining work.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["fusion_ignition","hts_magnets","tokamak_rl","general_fusion_1kev","f_honest_money","f_long_horizon","iter_construction"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Fusion_power"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Ignition-level target gain shown at NIF, but no device has produced net electricity.","tier":2,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#fusion_power"},{"id":"nano_control","name":"Molecular-scale computing and control","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Rod-logic or molecular processors that tell nanomachines what to build, with verified instruction sets.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["molecular_mfg","formal_verif_scale","dna_nanotech"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Molecular_electronics"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Single-molecule switches and logic gates in the lab.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#nano_control"},{"id":"nano_safety","name":"Sealed-assembler safety and governance","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Broadcast-architecture assemblers, kill switches, and international standards, so nanotech is deployed with confidence instead of fear.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["ai_alignment","molecular_mfg","f_peace","f_trust"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Voluntary guidelines exist; no institutions.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#nano_safety"},{"id":"lunar_base","name":"Permanent lunar base","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"A crewed outpost at the lunar south pole with ice mining. The proving ground for living off-world.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["starship_full_reuse","artemis_lander_conops","iss","construction_robots","f_long_horizon"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Moonbase"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Crewed lunar return and surface hardware are still in development.","tier":1,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#lunar_base"},{"id":"asteroid_mining","name":"Asteroid mining","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Extracting water, metals, and volatiles from near-Earth asteroids, the raw material base for the space economy.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["space_industry","isru","robot_economy","space_resource_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Asteroid_mining"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Gram-scale sample returns only; commercial prospecting attempts failed.","tier":2,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#asteroid_mining"},{"id":"virtual_human","name":"Virtual cell to virtual human simulation","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Predictive simulation from molecules to organs, so therapies are tested in silico before any patient.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["virtual_cell","ai_compute_abund","alphafold3"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Early AI virtual-cell models; no validated organism-level simulation.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#virtual_human"},{"id":"mass_driver","name":"Lunar mass driver","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"An electromagnetic launcher hurling lunar material to orbit cheaply, the industrial artery of O'Neill's space economy.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["lunar_base","hts_magnets"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Mass_driver"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Electromagnetic launch studies and small prototypes.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#mass_driver"},{"id":"f_demographics","name":"Healthy demographics","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Stabilising or above-replacement fertility keeps a young, growing pool of builders. The fertility collapse is a major slow drift.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming.","dependencies":["pill","ivf","welfare_state"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Total_fertility_rate"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"UN World Population Prospects 2024: fertility is below replacement in more than half of countries, and no policy has reliably restored it.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#f_demographics"},{"id":"ai_auto_ai_research","name":"AI-automated AI research","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"AI agents that design, run and analyse AI experiments themselves, with people setting direction and judging results. Labs report intern-level systems already.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["ai_agents","alphaevolve_stack","ai_scientist_sakana","openai_research_intern","nas"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"OpenAI reports an intern-level automated researcher (Sept 2026); fully automated researcher targeted for 2028.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#ai_auto_ai_research"},{"id":"rsi_hardware","name":"AI-designed AI chips in a closed loop (RSI hardware)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"AI designs the next accelerator, which trains a better designer, with tape-out, fabrication and verification increasingly automated. Each turn of the loop makes the next one faster.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["alphachip","dso_ai","alphaevolve_stack","ai_compute_abund"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"AI already lays out parts of TPUs and tunes commercial chips; the full loop is not closed.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#rsi_hardware"},{"id":"rsi","name":"Recursive self-improvement (RSI)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"AI systems that improve their own algorithms, training and hardware, each generation building the next. This is the bridge from AGI to superintelligence, and the point where verifiable alignment matters most.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["agi","ai_agents","ai_auto_ai_research","ai_compute_abund","rsi_hardware","ai_alignment"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Partial loops exist (AlphaEvolve, AlphaChip); no end-to-end self-improving system.","tier":2,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#rsi"},{"id":"self_rep_space_factory","name":"Self-replicating space factories","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Stage 1 von Neumann probe: a seed factory in the solar system that turns asteroid or lunar material into copies of itself. Studied by NASA in 1980; RepRap and in-orbit printing are small first steps.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["robot_economy","asteroid_mining","space_industry","isru","agi","general_robots","nasa_aasm","reprap","made_in_space_iss"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Self-replicating_spacecraft"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Pieces only: RepRap printers make many of their own plastic parts; Made In Space/Redwire printed parts on the ISS from 2014. No closed-loop self-replicating machine exists.","tier":2,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#self_rep_space_factory"},{"id":"closed_eco","name":"Closed-loop ecological life support","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Recycling air, water, and food at near 100%. The ISS recycles about 98% of its water; full closure has never lasted.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["synthetic_bio","precision_ferm","iss","microbiome_eng"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Bioregenerative_life_support_system"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Partial closure experiments (Biosphere 2, BIOS-3); none fully closed long-term.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#closed_eco"},{"id":"fusion_propulsion","name":"Fusion propulsion","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Direct fusion drives that make the solar system weeks wide, the prerequisite for moving comets and building megastructures.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["fusion_power","nuclear_propulsion","space_industry"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Fusion_rocket"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Paper studies and small plasma-thruster experiments.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#fusion_propulsion"},{"id":"connectome_human","name":"Human connectome at synaptic resolution","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Mapping all of a human brain's roughly 86 billion neurons and their synapses, a zettabyte-scale imaging and AI problem.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["connectome_mouse","ai_compute_abund"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Human_Connectome_Project"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"One cubic millimetre of human cortex mapped (H01).","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#connectome_human"},{"id":"simulationism","name":"Simulationism: policy tested on simulated societies","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Every major law is trialled first on validated simulated societies, then piloted, then measured. Jason sees this as the first step toward effective government.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming, Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["econ_twins","evidence_policy","ai_alignment","charter_cities"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Agent simulations are used as research tools, not as a policy gate.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#simulationism"},{"id":"radiation_shield","name":"Deep-space radiation shielding","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Active magnetic and passive shields protecting crews on years-long missions.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming.","dependencies":["hts_magnets","metamaterials_adv"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Cosmic_ray"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Shielding materials tested; deep-space crew protection unsolved.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#radiation_shield"},{"id":"quantum_sim_fields","name":"Quantum simulation of quantum field theory and spacetime","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Using quantum computers to simulate field theories and toy models of quantum gravity that no classical machine can, giving new physics a testbed.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["ftqc","w_standard_model_18338"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Quantum_simulator"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Small lattice gauge-theory simulations on quantum hardware only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#quantum_sim_fields"},{"id":"superhot_geo","name":"Superhot-rock geothermal","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Drilling to supercritical-temperature rock for baseload power almost anywhere on Earth.","verdict":"Precursor to: Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["geothermal_enh","subsea_geothermal","f_permitting"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Enhanced_geothermal_system"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Drilling and well tests only; no superhot-rock power plant.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#superhot_geo"},{"id":"antimatter_factory","name":"Antimatter production at gram scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Producing and storing antimatter in quantities useful for propulsion and high-energy physics. Today's output is nanograms, so this is an efficiency gap of many orders of magnitude.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["w_antimatter_83197","dyson_swarm","hts_magnets"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Antimatter"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"CERN makes nanograms-scale quantities per year at most.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#antimatter_factory"},{"id":"atomic_recycling","name":"Atom-level recycling","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Plasma separation and molecular sorting return any waste stream to pure feedstock, closing the loop on matter.","verdict":"Precursor to: Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["energy_too_cheap","molecular_mfg","robot_economy"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Plasma_gasification"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Lab-scale elemental separation and recovery research.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#atomic_recycling"},{"id":"mars","name":"Humans on Mars","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"The first crewed landing on Mars and a return home.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["starship_full_reuse","isru"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Human_mission_to_Mars"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Crewed Mars hardware still in development; no crewed mission flown.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#mars"},{"id":"interstellar_probe","name":"Laser-sail interstellar probes","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Gram-scale probes pushed by gigawatt lasers to about 20% of light speed (Breakthrough Starshot concept). These are the first robotic visits to nearby stars.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["space_solar","metamaterials_adv","starlink"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Breakthrough_Starshot"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Design studies and lab beam and sail tests.","tier":2,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#interstellar_probe"},{"id":"qg_tabletop","name":"Tabletop tests of quantum gravity","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Entangling masses through gravity alone to show, for the first time, whether gravity is quantum.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["neutral_atom","laser","w_bose_einstein_condensate_46202","atom_interferometry"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Quantum_gravity"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Proposed entanglement-via-gravity experiments still being built.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#qg_tabletop"},{"id":"casimir_eng","name":"Engineered negative-energy (Casimir) cavities","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Measuring and shaping the small negative energy densities quantum fields already allow between plates, the only known foothold toward exotic matter.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["quantum","metamaterials_adv"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Casimir_effect"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Casimir forces are measured, but negative energy cannot be engineered usefully.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#casimir_eng"},{"id":"beyond_sm","name":"Physics beyond the Standard Model","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Identifying dark matter, dark energy, and the next layer of particle physics, and with them new possible handles on spacetime.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["w_standard_model_18338","quantum_sim_fields","gw_space_obs","dark_matter_id","next_collider","f_open_inquiry"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Indirect hints (neutrino mass, dark matter); no new theory confirmed.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#beyond_sm"},{"id":"warp_energy","name":"Warp-metric energy reduced to physical scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Reshaping the warp metric so it needs planetary rather than galactic mass-energy; published refinements have cut estimates by many orders of magnitude.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["unk_qg","solve_everything","warp_math"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Alcubierre_drive"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Theory papers have reduced estimates; no experimental path.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#warp_energy"},{"id":"aging_indication","name":"Aging as an approvable indication","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Regulators accept \"slowing aging\" as a treatable target, unlocking investment in therapies that prevent many diseases at once.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["aging_biomarkers","tame","f_permitting"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Biogerontology"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Aging is not an approvable indication; trials like TAME are only planned.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#aging_indication"},{"id":"senolytic_tx","name":"Approved senolytic therapies","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Drugs that clear senescent cells and are approved for age-related disease.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["senolytics"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Senolytic"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Small human trials with mixed results; nothing approved.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#senolytic_tx"},{"id":"multiplex_editing","name":"Multiplex somatic genome editing","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Safely rewriting dozens of genes in adult tissue at once, from protective variants to whole-pathway upgrades.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["in_vivo_delivery","prime_editing","prime_edit_in_vivo"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Genome_editing"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Multiplex edits in cells and animals; not in human therapy.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#multiplex_editing"},{"id":"aging_causal_model","name":"Complete causal model of aging","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A mechanistic map of how the hallmarks of aging interact, showing which interventions reset the system.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["hallmarks_aging","virtual_human","solve_everything","virtual_cell"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Hallmarks_of_aging"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Competing hallmark frameworks; no validated causal model.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#aging_causal_model"},{"id":"reprogramming_therapy","name":"Partial reprogramming therapies in humans","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Cyclic Yamanaka-factor treatments that restore youthful epigenetic states without causing cancer.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["partial_reprog","osk_vision","in_vivo_delivery","aging_biomarkers"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Rejuvenation"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Works in mice; first human trials only starting.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#reprogramming_therapy"},{"id":"immune_rejuv","name":"Immune system rejuvenation","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Regrowing the thymus and resetting immune memory, restoring a young immune system.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["in_vivo_cart","reprogramming_therapy"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Immunosenescence"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Small thymus-regeneration studies only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#immune_rejuv"},{"id":"organ_on_demand","name":"Organs on demand","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Grown, printed, or xeno-derived replacement organs for anyone who needs them, matched to their own cells.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["xeno_routine","ipsc","w_3d_printing_229367","bioprinting_vasc","organ_vitrification","autonomous_surgery"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Organ_printing"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Organoids and lab-grown tissue patches; no lab-made transplantable solid organ.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#organ_on_demand"},{"id":"bioprinting_vasc","name":"Vascularized bioprinted tissue","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Printing thick tissue with working blood vessels, the bottleneck for printed organs.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["ipsc","w_3d_printing_229367"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/3D_bioprinting"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Vascular channels printed in small lab tissues.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#bioprinting_vasc"},{"id":"bci_merge","name":"Neural integration (human–AI merge)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Thought-speed, two-way links between human cortex and AI systems that feel like extensions of the self.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["bci_highbw","agi","ai_alignment","machine_ethics_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Neuroprosthetics"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"BCIs restore lost function; no cognitive augmentation shown.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#bci_merge"},{"id":"brain_molecular","name":"Molecular-state brain mapping","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Recording synapse strengths, receptor types, and gene expression, not just wiring, which emulation likely needs.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["connectome_mouse","ngs"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Spatial_transcriptomics"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Expansion-microscopy methods in small volumes.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#brain_molecular"},{"id":"wbe_animal","name":"Whole-brain emulation of a simple animal","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A simulated worm, fly, or mouse brain that behaves like the original in a virtual body.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["connectome_fly","virtual_human"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/OpenWorm"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Partial worm and fly models; no faithful whole-animal emulation.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#wbe_animal"},{"id":"unk_consciousness","name":"Hard problem of consciousness (Chalmers 1995)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Why physical processing is accompanied by experience at all (Chalmers, 1995), and a theory predicting which systems are conscious and whether an emulation or gradual replacement preserves the person. This gates identity continuity for uploading. 'Solved' may never be cleanly provable: progress may come as converging, tested theories rather than a proof.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["wbe_animal","solve_everything","brain_molecular","f_open_inquiry","iit_gwt_adversarial","ncc","nagel_bat"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Hard_problem_of_consciousness"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Adversarial theory tests have started; no accepted theory.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#unk_consciousness"},{"id":"extremophile_eng","name":"Engineered pioneer organisms","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Microbes and lichens designed to survive Martian cold, radiation, and perchlorate soil while making oxygen and soil.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["synthetic_bio","crispr","w_xenobot_82309052","minimal_cell"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Extremophile"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Engineered extremophiles in lab Mars-simulant studies.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#extremophile_eng"},{"id":"supergreenhouse","name":"Engineered super-greenhouse gas production","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Factories releasing fluorinated gases to warm Mars by tens of degrees.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["mars_city","isru","quantum_chem_exact"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Terraforming_of_Mars"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Paper studies of fluorinated and nanoparticle warming agents.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#supergreenhouse"},{"id":"orbital_mirrors","name":"Orbital mirrors and solettas","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Large thin-film mirrors that focus sunlight on polar caps, releasing frozen CO2.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["space_industry","metamaterials_adv","self_rep_space_factory"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"One 20-metre orbital mirror test (Znamya-2); nothing at scale.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#orbital_mirrors"},{"id":"mars_magnetosphere","name":"Artificial magnetosphere at Mars L1","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A superconducting dipole shield at Mars–Sun L1 that protects a thickened atmosphere from solar-wind stripping.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["hts_magnets","space_nuclear","space_industry"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Magnetosphere"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Concept studies only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#mars_magnetosphere"},{"id":"volatile_delivery","name":"Volatile delivery: redirecting icy bodies","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Steering comets or Kuiper-belt ice to deliver water and nitrogen to Mars. The energy and precision needed are vast.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["fusion_propulsion","asteroid_mining","self_rep_space_factory","planetary_defense"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"One asteroid deflected (DART); moving icy bodies is far beyond that.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#volatile_delivery"},{"id":"planetary_stewardship","name":"Planetary stewardship institutions","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Governance able to manage century-scale planetary projects and Earth's own climate, with legitimacy across generations.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["simulationism","mars_city","planet_climate_models"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Treaties exist for planetary protection, not for engineering planets.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#planetary_stewardship"},{"id":"futarchy","name":"Futarchy: vote on values, bet on beliefs","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Robin Hanson's proposal: citizens choose goals, and policies are adopted when markets predict they will advance them.","verdict":"Precursor to: Effective, efficient government.","dependencies":["prediction_markets","econ_twins","f_trust"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Small on-chain experiments only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#futarchy"},{"id":"full_vr","name":"Full-sensory immersive virtual worlds","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Architecture & the Arts","domainId":"arts","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Virtual environments indistinguishable from reality to the senses: virtual bodies for emulated minds and new art forms.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["world_models","bci_highbw"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Virtual_reality"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Audio-visual VR only; touch, smell and taste in lab prototypes.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/architecture-and-the-arts#full_vr"},{"id":"radiation_resist","name":"Radiation-resistant human cells","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Borrowing DNA-protection genes (such as tardigrade Dsup) and repair pathways to protect astronauts and slow damage-driven aging.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["multiplex_editing","genome_writing"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Radiation_resistance"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Tardigrade protein (Dsup) protects human cells in culture.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#radiation_resist"},{"id":"suspended_animation","name":"Suspended animation and hibernation","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Safely pausing human metabolism for months, for emergency medicine and long voyages.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["virtual_human","organ_vitrification"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Suspended_animation"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Emergency preservation trial in trauma; no long-term human stasis.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#suspended_animation"},{"id":"neurodegeneration_cured","name":"Neurodegeneration cured","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Stopping and reversing Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and ALS, a prerequisite for a healthy brain over centuries.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["lecanemab","multiplex_editing","ai_drug_approved"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Neurodegenerative_disease"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Approved antibodies modestly slow Alzheimer's; nothing cures it.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#neurodegeneration_cured"},{"id":"mito_repair","name":"Mitochondrial repair","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Replacing or backing up damaged mitochondrial DNA (allotopic expression), one of the hallmarks of aging.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["in_vivo_delivery","multiplex_editing"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Mitochondrial transfer studies only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#mito_repair"},{"id":"next_collider","name":"Next-generation collider (FCC / CEPC)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A ~90 km collider (CERN's FCC or China's CEPC) to study the Higgs with precision and then reach ~100 TeV, an order of magnitude beyond the LHC, using high-field superconducting magnets. Both are at the planning stage.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["w_standard_model_18338","hts_magnets","f_long_horizon","lhc","higgs_discovery"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Future_Circular_Collider"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Feasibility studies (FCC, CEPC); none approved for construction.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#next_collider"},{"id":"warp_math","name":"Rigorous warp and wormhole mathematics","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"AI-assisted, formally verified analysis of which spacetime geometries are physically allowed and at what energy cost.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["w_general_relativity_11452","ai_run_math","lean"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Alcubierre_drive"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Theory papers on warp metrics; little formal verification.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#warp_math"},{"id":"digital_mind_ethics","name":"Ethics and law of digital minds","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Personhood, rights, and consent frameworks for emulated and merged minds, so uploading is a choice protected by law.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["unk_consciousness","rules_as_code","machine_ethics_law"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Academic work on AI moral status; no law.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#digital_mind_ethics"},{"id":"navier_stokes","name":"Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness (unforced)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Millennium Prize problem: do smooth 3D fluid flows stay smooth forever? The unforced question remains open.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["ai_run_math","navier_stokes_claim","euler_unforced_blowup"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Unforced case open. OpenAI claims a forced finite-time blow-up (Clay alternatives C/D, Sep 2026) with a Lean formalization whose match to the paper is disputed; claimed, not accepted by Clay.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#navier_stokes"},{"id":"bsd","name":"Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Millennium Prize problem: the rank of an elliptic curve equals the order of vanishing of its L-function at 1.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["ai_run_math","lean"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Birch_and_Swinnerton-Dyer_conjecture"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Proved for analytic rank 0 and 1 (Gross–Zagier, Kolyvagin); open in general.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#bsd"},{"id":"dark_energy","name":"Nature of dark energy","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"What drives the accelerating expansion of the universe: a cosmological constant or something that evolves?","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["beyond_sm","gw_space_obs","optical_clocks"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Dark_energy"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"DESI 2024–25 results hint that dark energy may evolve over time; not yet decisive.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#dark_energy"},{"id":"abiogenesis","name":"Origin of life (abiogenesis)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"How chemistry became biology: a full, reproducible path from simple molecules to a self-replicating, evolving cell.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["minimal_cell","genome_writing","auto_lab"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Abiogenesis"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Pieces demonstrated (Miller–Urey amino acids, self-replicating RNA ribozymes); no complete lab pathway.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#abiogenesis"},{"id":"reversible_logic","name":"Practical reversible / near-Landauer computing","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Computing that approaches the thermodynamic minimum energy per operation. It is required for planet- and brain-scale simulation without planet-scale heat.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["reversible","photonic_compute"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Reversible_computing"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Adiabatic/reversible test chips and theory only.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#reversible_logic"},{"id":"aneutronic_fusion","name":"Aneutronic fusion (p–B11, D–He3)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Fusion that releases energy mostly as charged particles, allowing direct conversion to electricity with little neutron damage. It is far harder than D–T fusion.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["fusion_power","quantum_sim_fields","tritium_cycle"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Aneutronic_fusion"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"p–B11 reactions observed in lab plasmas; far from net energy.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#aneutronic_fusion"},{"id":"cnt_graphene_mfg","name":"Defect-free carbon nanomaterials at scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Kilometre-long nanotubes and wafer-scale graphene without defects. These are the materials for space tethers, superconductors, and nanomachines.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["w_graphene_169917","w_carbon_nanotube_1778729","materials_genome"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Carbon_nanotube"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Bulk nanocarbon is made, but defect-free material only at tiny scale.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#cnt_graphene_mfg"},{"id":"space_elevator","name":"Space elevators and orbital tethers","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Lifting mass to orbit by cable instead of rockets. Feasible first on the Moon and Mars, and on Earth if nanotube strength scales.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["cnt_graphene_mfg","space_industry","w_space_elevator_1473823"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Space_elevator"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"No material strong enough at scale; small tether experiments only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#space_elevator"},{"id":"universal_flu","name":"Universal flu vaccine","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"One vaccine covering all influenza strains, the template for universal vaccines.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["mrna_vaccine"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Influenza_vaccine"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Broad-spectrum candidates in early-phase trials.","tier":1,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#universal_flu"},{"id":"tritium_cycle","name":"Fusion fuel cycle (tritium breeding, helium-3)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Closing the fuel cycle for D–T fusion and sourcing helium-3 for advanced fuels.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["fusion_power","lunar_base"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Breeding_blanket"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"early","progressNote":"Breeding blankets tested in mockups; no closed fuel cycle.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#tritium_cycle"},{"id":"cap_ftl","name":"Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":10,"summary":"Reaching other stars in less time than light takes, by engineering spacetime itself (an Alcubierre-type warp metric or a traversable wormhole) rather than outrunning light locally. Every known route needs physics we do not have yet, so this spire is the tallest.","verdict":"Capstone moonshot.","dependencies":["warp_probe","wormhole_stab","unk_causality","interstellar_comms","crewed_warp_ship","f_open_inquiry","f_long_horizon","f_talent","f_peace"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Faster-than-light"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No known physical mechanism; every proposal needs exotic matter or new physics.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":{"precursors":80,"chain":14,"tier3":13,"unknowns":5,"firstTier":19,"levels":{"none":13,"early":27,"demonstrated":35,"deploying":5},"score":35,"firstScore":50,"foundDirect":["f_open_inquiry","f_long_horizon","f_talent","f_peace"],"foundAll":11,"anchors":122},"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#cap_ftl"},{"id":"cap_lifespan","name":"Unlimited healthy human lifespan","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":10,"summary":"Aging stops being a cause of death: damage is repaired faster than it accumulates, in every tissue, including the brain. It is largely an engineering and biology problem, with no new physics required.","verdict":"Capstone moonshot.","dependencies":["longevity","brain_rejuv","cell_repair_nano","aging_causal_model","organ_on_demand","radiation_resist","f_permitting","f_honest_money","f_open_inquiry","f_demographics"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Life_extension"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No intervention has yet extended maximum human lifespan.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":{"precursors":67,"chain":8,"tier3":3,"unknowns":0,"firstTier":24,"levels":{"none":6,"early":24,"demonstrated":33,"deploying":4},"score":35,"firstScore":50,"foundDirect":["f_permitting","f_honest_money","f_open_inquiry","f_demographics"],"foundAll":12,"anchors":104},"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#cap_lifespan"},{"id":"cap_terraform","name":"Terraforming","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":10,"summary":"Making another world, most likely Mars, habitable to unprotected life by thickening its atmosphere, warming it, shielding it, and seeding a biosphere. No new physics is needed, but the industrial scale is enormous and needs a self-replicating space economy.","verdict":"Capstone moonshot.","dependencies":["biosphere_seeding","mars_magnetosphere","volatile_delivery","orbital_mirrors","mars_atmo_thicken","planetary_stewardship","oneill_habitat","f_long_horizon","f_peace","f_rule_of_law","f_demographics"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Terraforming"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No planet-scale environmental change attempted anywhere off Earth.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":{"precursors":70,"chain":12,"tier3":3,"unknowns":0,"firstTier":20,"levels":{"none":7,"early":22,"demonstrated":36,"deploying":5},"score":40,"firstScore":55,"foundDirect":["f_long_horizon","f_peace","f_rule_of_law","f_demographics"],"foundAll":12,"anchors":111},"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#cap_terraform"},{"id":"cap_gov","name":"Effective, efficient government","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":10,"summary":"Government that reliably delivers outcomes at low cost and with consent: policies are tested before enactment, measured after, and administered with near-zero friction. It is mostly a social-technology problem, so the chain is short but adoption is hard.","verdict":"Capstone moonshot.","dependencies":["simulationism","futarchy","ai_civil_service","rules_as_code","deliberation_scale","ai_alignment","zk_identity","liquid_democracy","f_integrity","f_trust","f_rule_of_law","f_education","machine_ethics_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Evidence-based_policy"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No government yet tests policy on validated simulated societies before enacting it.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":{"precursors":29,"chain":5,"tier3":0,"unknowns":0,"firstTier":12,"levels":{"none":1,"early":5,"demonstrated":18,"deploying":5},"score":50,"firstScore":60,"foundDirect":["f_integrity","f_trust","f_rule_of_law","f_education"],"foundAll":7,"anchors":57},"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#cap_gov"},{"id":"cap_abundance","name":"Post-scarcity energy and matter","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":10,"summary":"Energy, materials, food, water, and manufactured goods become so cheap that material scarcity stops constraining human lives. It combines abundant clean energy with self-replicating automation and atomically precise manufacturing.","verdict":"Capstone moonshot.","dependencies":["energy_too_cheap","robot_economy","molecular_mfg","atomic_recycling","asteroid_mining","food_abundance","water_abundance","automation_dividend","dac_gigaton","f_cheap_energy","f_permitting","f_honest_money","f_rule_of_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Post-scarcity"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Energy and goods still priced by scarcity everywhere.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":{"precursors":45,"chain":8,"tier3":0,"unknowns":0,"firstTier":15,"levels":{"none":2,"early":10,"demonstrated":28,"deploying":5},"score":45,"firstScore":55,"foundDirect":["f_cheap_energy","f_permitting","f_honest_money","f_rule_of_law"],"foundAll":7,"anchors":76},"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#cap_abundance"},{"id":"cap_mind","name":"Mind uploading / human–AI merge","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":10,"summary":"A human mind that continues on (or seamlessly extends into) a computational substrate, by gradual neural integration or whole-brain emulation. The deepest unknown is not engineering but whether, and how, identity and experience carry over.","verdict":"Capstone moonshot.","dependencies":["wbe_human","bci_merge","unk_consciousness","nondestructive_scan","asi","digital_mind_ethics","f_open_inquiry","f_trust","f_talent","f_education","machine_ethics_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Mind_uploading"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No neural system of any size has been uploaded or emulated with fidelity.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":{"precursors":53,"chain":9,"tier3":6,"unknowns":1,"firstTier":15,"levels":{"none":7,"early":21,"demonstrated":21,"deploying":4},"score":35,"firstScore":50,"foundDirect":["f_open_inquiry","f_trust","f_talent","f_education"],"foundAll":9,"anchors":87},"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#cap_mind"},{"id":"cap_nano","name":"Nanomachines (molecular assemblers)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":10,"summary":"Drexler-style molecular nanotechnology: programmable machines that build almost anything atom by atom, from diamondoid structures to medical nanobots. It is engineering-limited, not physics-limited, but no one has yet demonstrated a general assembler.","verdict":"Capstone moonshot.","dependencies":["programmable_assemblers","nano_control","nano_safety","diamondoid_scale","self_healing","f_peace","f_trust","f_honest_money","f_open_inquiry"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Molecular_nanotechnology"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No general-purpose molecular assembler exists, even in the lab.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":{"precursors":31,"chain":7,"tier3":1,"unknowns":0,"firstTier":11,"levels":{"none":3,"early":9,"demonstrated":17,"deploying":2},"score":40,"firstScore":50,"foundDirect":["f_peace","f_trust","f_honest_money","f_open_inquiry"],"foundAll":9,"anchors":66},"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#cap_nano"},{"id":"machine_ethics_law","name":"Binding machine-ethics law (Asimov-style laws in statute)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":8,"summary":"Enforceable law that AI systems themselves must obey (harm avoidance, obedience within limits, honesty), verified in the systems and not just required of their makers.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Terraforming, Effective, efficient government, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["eu_ai_act","un_laws_resolution","dod_3000_09","unesco_ai_ethics","ep_robotics_2017","korea_robot_charter","epsrc_principles","asimov_laws","f_rule_of_law"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Machine_ethics"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No statute binds machines to Asimov-style laws; the EU AI Act places oversight duties on providers and deployers, not on the systems.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#machine_ethics_law"},{"id":"diamondoid_scale","name":"Diamondoid mechanosynthesis at scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Showing that stiff diamondoid structures can be assembled reliably, answering the Drexler–Smalley \"fat fingers\" objection in practice.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["molecular_mfg","mechanosynthesis"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Diamondoid"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Exists only in computational designs.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#diamondoid_scale"},{"id":"programmable_assemblers","name":"Programmable molecular assemblers","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"General-purpose machines that build other products, including copies of themselves, from molecular feedstock.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge, Nanomachines (molecular assemblers).","dependencies":["diamondoid_scale","nano_control","agi"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Molecular_assembler"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Theoretical designs only.","tier":3,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#programmable_assemblers"},{"id":"robot_economy","name":"Self-replicating robot industry","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Manufacturing & Robotics","domainId":"robotics","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":6,"summary":"Factories run by robots that build robots and the factories that make them, so capital stock grows exponentially.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Terraforming, Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["lights_out_everything","agi","general_robots","f_honest_money"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Self-replicating_machine"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No robot factory builds its own robots without people.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/manufacturing-and-robotics#robot_economy"},{"id":"asi","name":"Superintelligence","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Intelligence far beyond the best humans in science and engineering. Its limits are unknown (tier 3), but it would compress centuries of R&D into years.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL), Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["agi","ai_alignment","ai_compute_abund","rsi"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Superintelligence"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No system exceeds top humans across domains.","tier":3,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#asi"},{"id":"cell_repair_nano","name":"Cell-repair nanomachines","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":5,"summary":"Medical nanobots that patrol tissues, removing damage and repairing DNA (Freitas's nanomedicine program).","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan, Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["programmable_assemblers","virtual_human","nano_safety"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Nanomedicine"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Concept only.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#cell_repair_nano"},{"id":"mars_outpost","name":"Permanent crewed Mars outpost","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Continuously crewed Mars base resupplied from Earth: the step between a first landing and a self-sustaining city.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["mars","isru","closed_eco","space_nuclear","radiation_shield"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Colonization_of_Mars"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No crewed Mars landing yet; outpost concepts only (SpaceX, NASA Moon to Mars architecture).","tier":2,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#mars_outpost"},{"id":"energy_too_cheap","name":"Energy too cheap to meter","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Clean electricity at a fraction of today's cost, everywhere. Desalination, direct air capture, and atom-level recycling become cheap.","verdict":"Precursor to: Post-scarcity energy and matter.","dependencies":["solar_tw","fusion_power","advanced_fission","superhot_geo","global_grid","long_storage","f_cheap_energy"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Cost_of_electricity_by_source"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Marginal energy is still metered and priced everywhere.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#energy_too_cheap"},{"id":"dyson_swarm","name":"Solar-system power swarm (Dyson swarm segments)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Energy","domainId":"energy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Self-replicating factories turn asteroid material into collectors orbiting the Sun, scaling energy capture by orders of magnitude. Needed for planet-scale and spacetime-scale engineering.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["space_solar","self_rep_space_factory"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Dyson_sphere"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No space power infrastructure beyond satellites.","tier":3,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/energy#dyson_swarm"},{"id":"mars_city","name":"Self-sustaining Mars city","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A million-person city that can survive if the ships stop coming, and the industrial base for terraforming.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["mars_outpost","mars","isru","closed_eco","space_nuclear","robot_economy","construction_robots","radiation_shield","interplanetary_net","f_long_horizon","f_demographics"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Colonization_of_Mars"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Depends on crewed landings that have not happened.","tier":2,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#mars_city"},{"id":"interstellar_comms","name":"Interstellar communication network","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Laser and gravitational-lens relays linking star systems, the nervous system of any FTL civilization.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["interstellar_probe","dyson_swarm","interplanetary_net"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Interplanetary_Internet"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Concept only.","tier":2,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#interstellar_comms"},{"id":"unk_qg","name":"A theory unifying GR and QM that permits spacetime engineering","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"An empirically confirmed theory of quantum gravity that also says how spacetime geometry can be engineered. Without it, FTL remains speculation.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["qg_tabletop","beyond_sm","asi","quantum_sim_fields","w_general_relativity_11452","gw_space_obs","next_collider"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Theory_of_everything"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No confirmed theory unifies GR and QM.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#unk_qg"},{"id":"unk_exotic","name":"Exotic matter / negative energy density at macroscopic scale","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Matter or field configurations violating the energy conditions over metres, not nanometres. Every known warp or wormhole solution requires it.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["unk_qg","casimir_eng"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Exotic_matter"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No macroscopic negative energy density observed.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#unk_exotic"},{"id":"unk_causality","name":"Resolving FTL causality (chronology protection)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Philosophy & Institutions","domainId":"philosophy","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Understanding whether faster-than-light travel necessarily allows time-travel paradoxes, and how nature prevents or permits them.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["unk_qg"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Chronology_protection_conjecture"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Open theoretical question.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/philosophy-and-institutions#unk_causality"},{"id":"spacetime_lab","name":"Laboratory spacetime metric engineering","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A measurable, deliberately engineered distortion of spacetime in the lab: the first \"warp field\" experiment.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["unk_exotic","warp_energy","antimatter_factory"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No lab manipulation of spacetime metric.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#spacetime_lab"},{"id":"wormhole_stab","name":"Traversable wormhole stabilization","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Creating and holding open a wormhole throat large enough to pass signals, then matter (Morris–Thorne solution).","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["unk_exotic","spacetime_lab"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Wormhole"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Theory only; needs exotic matter.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#wormhole_stab"},{"id":"warp_probe","name":"Uncrewed warp-bubble probe","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"The first craft to make an effective superluminal hop, powered by solar-system-scale energy.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["spacetime_lab","dyson_swarm","interstellar_probe"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Warp_drive"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Needs prerequisites that do not exist.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#warp_probe"},{"id":"crewed_warp_ship","name":"Crewed warp-capable starship","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"A ship that carries people to another star within a human lifetime, then within weeks.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["warp_probe","closed_eco","fusion_propulsion","suspended_animation","radiation_shield"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Warp_drive"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Needs prerequisites that do not exist.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#crewed_warp_ship"},{"id":"longevity","name":"Longevity escape velocity","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Life expectancy rises by more than a year per year: therapies outpace aging.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["reprogramming_therapy","senolytic_tx","aging_indication","cancer_managed","immune_rejuv","multiplex_editing","ai_drug_approved","mito_repair","aggregate_clearance"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Longevity_escape_velocity"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Life expectancy gains still under a year per year.","tier":2,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#longevity"},{"id":"brain_rejuv","name":"Brain rejuvenation that preserves identity","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Restoring youthful neurons and synapses while keeping the memories and personality they encode. Deep unknowns remain about how identity is stored.","verdict":"Precursor to: Unlimited healthy human lifespan.","dependencies":["reprogramming_therapy","connectome_human","aging_causal_model","neurodegeneration_cured"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Neuroregeneration"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No intervention rejuvenates the human brain.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#brain_rejuv"},{"id":"nondestructive_scan","name":"Non-destructive whole-brain readout","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Reading a living brain's full state without destroying it, through nanoscale probes or new imaging physics.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["cell_repair_nano","bci_highbw","brain_molecular"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No method reads synapses in a living brain.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#nondestructive_scan"},{"id":"wbe_human","name":"Whole-brain emulation of a human","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Information","domainId":"computing","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Running a human mind's dynamics on computers with functional fidelity.","verdict":"Precursor to: Mind uploading / human–AI merge.","dependencies":["connectome_human","brain_molecular","wbe_animal","neuromorphic_scale","full_vr","unk_consciousness"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Mind_uploading"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Depends on scans and models that do not exist.","tier":3,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/information#wbe_human"},{"id":"mars_atmo_thicken","name":"Mars atmosphere thickened to survivable pressure","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Raising surface pressure above the Armstrong limit so people need only oxygen masks.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["supergreenhouse","orbital_mirrors","volatile_delivery","mars_magnetosphere"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Not attempted.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#mars_atmo_thicken"},{"id":"biosphere_seeding","name":"Ecopoiesis: seeding a self-sustaining biosphere","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Establishing a succession of engineered ecosystems that build soil and oxygen over generations.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["extremophile_eng","mars_atmo_thicken","planet_climate_models","closed_eco"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"none","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Not attempted.","tier":3,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#biosphere_seeding"},{"id":"oneill_habitat","name":"Rotating space habitats","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"O'Neill cylinders with artificial gravity, homes for millions off Earth.","verdict":"Precursor to: Terraforming.","dependencies":["space_industry","mass_driver","closed_eco"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/O'Neill_cylinder"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Design studies only.","tier":2,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#oneill_habitat"},{"id":"dark_matter_id","name":"Dark matter identified","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":4,"summary":"Detecting what dark matter is, the first new ingredient of the universe since the Standard Model.","verdict":"Precursor to: Faster-than-light travel (effective FTL).","dependencies":["atom_interferometry","optical_clocks","quantum_sim_fields","next_collider","icecube"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Dark_matter"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No direct detection.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#dark_matter_id"},{"id":"outer_moon_settlement","name":"Outer-moon settlement (Titan, Callisto or Ganymede)","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"A crewed base among the giant planets. Callisto sits outside Jupiter's worst radiation; Titan has a thick atmosphere and hydrocarbons.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["nuclear_propulsion","closed_eco","radiation_shield","space_nuclear","isru","mars_outpost"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Callisto_(moon)"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Robotic only: Europa Clipper and JUICE en route, Dragonfly to Titan in development. No crewed outer-planet mission planned.","tier":3,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#outer_moon_settlement"},{"id":"riemann","name":"Riemann hypothesis","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Millennium Prize problem: all nontrivial zeros of the zeta function lie on the critical line. It underpins the distribution of primes.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["ai_run_math","lean"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Riemann_hypothesis"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Open. Verified numerically for trillions of zeros; no proof.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#riemann"},{"id":"p_vs_np","name":"P vs NP","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Millennium Prize problem: can every quickly checked solution also be quickly found? The answer shapes cryptography, AI and optimization.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["ai_run_math","lean","turing"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/P_versus_NP_problem"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Open; known barrier results (relativization, natural proofs, algebrization) rule out many approaches.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#p_vs_np"},{"id":"yang_mills","name":"Yang–Mills existence and mass gap","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Millennium Prize problem: give quantum Yang–Mills theory a rigorous footing and prove its lightest particle has positive mass.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["ai_run_math","quantum","quantum_sim_fields"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Yang%E2%80%93Mills_existence_and_mass_gap"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Open; lattice simulations support a mass gap, no proof.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#yang_mills"},{"id":"hodge","name":"Hodge conjecture","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Millennium Prize problem linking the topology of complex algebraic varieties to their algebraic subvarieties.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["ai_run_math","lean"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Hodge_conjecture"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Open; known in low dimensions and special cases.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#hodge"},{"id":"baryon_asymmetry","name":"Matter–antimatter asymmetry","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Math & Physics","domainId":"science","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Why the universe contains matter but almost no antimatter. The Standard Model's CP violation is far too small to explain it.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["beyond_sm","next_collider"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Baryon_asymmetry"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Open; CP violation measured in quarks and first seen in baryons (LHCb 2025), still too small.","tier":3,"milestone":"open","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/math-and-physics#baryon_asymmetry"},{"id":"vn_probe_interstellar","name":"Interstellar von Neumann probe","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Transport & Space","domainId":"transport","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"Stage 2: a probe that reaches another star system, builds copies of itself from local material and sends them on, spreading across the galaxy at sublight speed. If such probes are possible, their absence is one form of the Fermi paradox.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["self_rep_space_factory","interstellar_probe","fusion_propulsion","agi"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Self-replicating_spacecraft"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"Concept only. Sublight route, not dependent on FTL.","tier":3,"milestone":"space","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/transport-and-space#vn_probe_interstellar"},{"id":"rt_superconductor","name":"Room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor","year":null,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Chemistry & Materials","domainId":"materials","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"advance","impact":3,"summary":"A material that superconducts without cooling or crushing pressure. It is not known to exist (tier 3, an open question in condensed-matter physics), but it would transform grids, magnets, and computing.","verdict":"Precursor to: .","dependencies":["materials_genome","quantum_chem_exact"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Room-temperature_superconductor"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":"none","progressNote":"No confirmed ambient superconductor; the LK-99 claim was refuted.","tier":3,"milestone":"tech","distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/chemistry-and-materials#rt_superconductor"},{"id":"engineered_pandemic","name":"Engineered pandemic risk","year":2030,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Life Sciences","domainId":"life","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"dissipate","impact":8,"summary":"Speculative risk.","verdict":"Die-risk: cheap synthesis and gain-of-function research make it possible to create pathogens worse than nature's. Defenses like metagenomic surveillance, fast vaccines and DNA-synthesis screening are racing it.","dependencies":["synthetic_bio","gain_of_function"],"region":"global","sources":[],"sourcePrimary":"primary","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/life-sciences#engineered_pandemic"},{"id":"loss_of_control","name":"Loss of human control over autonomous systems","year":2035,"date":null,"approx":false,"domain":"Military","domainId":"military","status":"future","statusRaw":"speculative","category":"dissipate","impact":4,"summary":"Speculative. In Asimov's terms: autonomous systems are delegated goals and authority faster than enforceable rules of conduct and human oversight are built.","verdict":"Bud: a risk of gradual delegation, not a single event.","dependencies":["autonomous_weapons","ai_agents","surveillance"],"region":"global","sources":["https://grokipedia.com/page/Three_Laws_of_Robotics","https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23758"],"sourcePrimary":"grokipedia","confidence":{"claimed":false,"yearCheck":"unverified","scoring":"curated","verdictAuto":false,"fiction":false},"progress":null,"progressNote":null,"tier":null,"milestone":null,"distance":null,"stage":null,"url":"https://expandingfrontier.ai/domain/military#loss_of_control"}]}